What's Next for the Bitcoin (BTC) Price as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Rebound: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The new week isn’t kicking off on the brightest note. Bitcoin BTC $ 86,001.77 is already pulling back from its weekend bounce, slipping down to $86,000 from around $88,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is also feeling the chill, sliding to 2,758 points from its weekend high of 2,816.

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BTC’s been on a tough four-week losing streak, marked by institutional capitulation. What’s next? Sharp sell-offs like this usually shake investor confidence, which doesn’t bounce back overnight. That makes a quick rally back to $100,000 or more by year-end pretty unlikely.

You can tell the mood from analysts' comments, which mostly avoid clear directional views.

"In the short term, a rebound is highly likely, but if we fall again and lose the $80,000 level, the probability of facing a much tougher period becomes significantly higher," CryptoQuant said in a post on X.

A bounce cannot be ruled out because a December interest-rate cut in the U.S. has returned to the table, with traders now assigning a 75% chance of a reduction after dovish remarks by Federal Reserve officials late last week. These odds could climb if this week's U.S. data — producer price index, retail sales, GDP, and PCE — signal cooling inflation and slower growth.

"For crypto, the macro delta is simple: easing prints would reduce real yields and likely draw marginal buyers back in; sticky inflation or hawkish commentary would keep risk asset liquidity constrained. Expect headline-driven volatility around these releases," Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.

That said, here is a quick reminder to those expecting Fed-driven booms like 2020-21. The game has changed. As Financial Strategist Russell Napier said, the post-Covid world is characterized by “fiscal dominance/state capitalism,” where governments, not central banks, lead the charge to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios.

In this new setup, governments leverage control over commercial banks and policy tools to direct liquidity into growth-driving economic activities that “inflate away” debt. This makes assets that benefit from fiscal spending and store-of-value appeal among the best investments right now.

This is a big shift from the pre-Covid, Fed dominance era, when new money flowed first to asset managers, sparking rallies in all corners of the financial markets: the classic Cantillon effect I first explained back in 2019!

Investors pinning their hopes solely on Fed stimulus for markets might want to rethink their playbook. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

Crypto Nov. 24: Monad’s public mainnet to start up with native token MON. Nov. 24: Two new spot crypto ETFs — Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ETF (GDOG) and Grayscale XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) — are expected to go live on NYSE Arca.

Macro Nothing scheduled.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Nothing scheduled.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

Nothing scheduled.

Market Movements

BTC is up 0.95% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $86,003.98 (24hrs: -0.3%)

ETH is up 1.14% at $2,799.37 (24hrs: -0.55%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 2% at 2,753.16 (24hrs: +0.12%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 25 bps at 2.81%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0034% (3.7777% annualized) on Binance

DXY is little changed at 100.09

Gold futures are down 0.30% at $4,067.20

Silver futures are down 0.22% at $49.81

Nikkei 225 closed down 2.40% at 48,625.88

Hang Seng closed up 1.97% at 25,716.50

FTSE is unchanged at 9,543.30

Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,510.71

DJIA closed on Friday up 1.08% at 46,245.41

S&P 500 closed up 0.98% at 6,602.99

Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.88% at 22,273.08

S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.85% at 30,160.65

S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.24% at 3,036.63

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.3 bps at 4.05%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% at 6,636.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.47% at 24,419.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 46,311.00



Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 59.08% (-0.31%)

Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03252 (0.77%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,039 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $35.59

Total fees: 2.32 BTC / $200,985

CME Futures Open Interest: 131,785 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 21.2 oz.

BTC vs gold market cap: 5.77%

Technical Analysis

Tether gold. (TradingView)

The chart shows daily swings in Tether gold's USDT-denominated price.

The token, XAUT, has chalked out a triangular consolidation over the past five weeks, marking a pause in the broader bullish trend.

The next move depends on the direction in which the triangular consolidation resolves. A bullish breakout would mean resumption of the broader rally, while a downside break would signal a bullish-to-bearish trend change.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN) closed on Friday at $240.41, (+0.96%), +2.16% at $245.60 in pre-market

Circle Internet (CRCL) closed at $71.33, (+6.53%), +0.71% at $71.84

Galaxy Digital (GLXY) closed at $23.42, (-2.37%), +2.95% at $24.11

MARA Holdings (MARA) closed at $10.07, (-1.76%), +1.39% at $10.21

Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed at $12.71, (-0.67%), +2.2% at $12.99

Core Scientific (CORZ) closed at $14.73, (-2.77%), +1.83% at $15

CleanSpark (CLSK) closed at $9.73 (-2.84%), +5.14% at $10.23

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) closed at $38.04, (-1.91%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD) closed at $14.65, (+3.03%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $170.50 (-3.74%), -5.41% at $167.55, +1.07% at $172.32

Semler Scientific (SMLR) closed at $19.03, (+3.36%)

SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.52 (+2.37%), +1.58% at $9.67

Upexi Inc (UPXI) closed at $2.52, (+2.43%), +3.17% at $2.60

Lite Strategy (LITS) closed at $1.70 (+0.59%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $238.4 million

Cumulative net flows: $57.62 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: $55.7 million

Cumulative net flows: $12.65 billion

Total ETH holdings ~6.13 million

Source: Farside Investors

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