Traders bet on calm as Federal Reserve interest-rate cut looms: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The main event for the crypto market on Wednesday is the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, due at 2 p.m. Key volatility indexes, however, indicate that traders do not expect extraordinary price swings.

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While the bank is expected to keep interest rates steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, Chairman Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference could steal the show.

Traders will want to know whether Powell and his team see the pause in rate cuts as temporary, or whether the recent strong U.S. GDP data and forecasts of an inflation resurgence have made them more cautious. The former scenario could accelerate the recovery rally in bitcoin and the broader market.

That said, Volmex's one-day implied volatility index tied to bitcoin remains pinned near an annualized 40%, right in the middle of the monthslong range of 20%-60%. That equates to a 24-hour price swing of just 2%. One-day volatility indexes for XRP, ETH, and SOL also indicate only mild volatility ahead.

Bitcoin topped $89,000 early today, extending its recovery from weekend lows near $86,000. Other major tokens also found a footing, including decentralized exchange Hyperliquid's HYPE token, which has gained over 50% this week. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) has rallied over 17% in 24 hours, a sign of renewed speculative interest in the market.

Apart from the Fed, the key question for the market is whether the U.S. government can avoid another shutdown as the Congress approaches its Friday funding deadline.

"A timely stopgap or agreement should compress near-term risk premia and let crypto trade more like straight beta," QCP Capital said in a market note. "A brief lapse can still produce a quick risk-off wobble that retraces once a deal lands. But a drawn-out standoff is the scenario that meaningfully tightens liquidity and forces broader de-risking."

In traditional markets, oil rallied to a four-month high. A sustained move higher could generate an inflationary impulse worldwide, weakening the case for rate cuts. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Crypto Jan. 28, 1 p.m.: Hedera Network to undergo a mainnet upgrade expected to take approximately 40 minutes to complete.

Macro Jan. 28, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision (Prev. 2.25%) Jan. 28, 2:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve interest-rate decision est. 3.75% (Prev. 3.75%) Jan. 28, 2:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve press conference on monetary policy

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Jan. 28: Tesla (TSLA), post-market, $8.22

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Governance votes & calls Jan. 28: Gala DeFi to host an X Spaces ‘Gala Meme Hour’ session. Floki is voting on the final rankings for the FlokiUltras3 Guerrilla Marketing Competition, inviting the community to order the top 20 shortlisted entries based on creativity and impact. Voting ends Jan. 28. CoW DAO is voting to renew team grants. This includes a 5% base allocation over four years and up to 10% in performance incentives linked to revenue milestones. Voting ends Jan. 28.

Unlocks Jan. 28: SIGN $ 0.03789 Jan. 28: JUP $ 0.2246

Token Launches Jan. 28: Moonbirds (BIRB) to be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, MEXC, and others. Jan. 28: SuperRare to launch the VORGIANS profile picture collection.



Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Day 1 of 3: WallStreetBets Live (Miami, Florida)

Market Movements

BTC is up 0.25% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $89,204.11 (24hrs: +0.84%)

ETH is down 0.21% at $3,005.80 (24hrs: +4%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 0.53% at 2,754.58 (24hrs: +2.47%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 5 bps at 2.8%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0069% (7.5091% annualized) on OKX

DXY is unchanged at 96.16

Gold futures are up 3.66% at $5,307.80

Silver futures are up 6.3% at $112.63

Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 53,358.71

Hang Seng closed up 2.58% at 27,826.91

FTSE is down 0.3% at 10,176.97

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.12% at 5,987.49

DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.83% at 49,003.41

S&P 500 closed up 0.41% at 6,978.60

Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.91% at 23,817.10

S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 33,096.40

S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.86% at 3,707.69

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.243%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% at 7,029.75

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.76% at 26,271.00

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 49,171.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 59.54% (+0.01%)

Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03372 (-0.57%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 902 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $39.69

Total fees: 2.3 BTC / $203,418

CME Futures Open Interest: 121,380 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 16.9 oz.

BTC vs gold market cap: 5.98%



Technical Analysis

DOGE's price has bounced from December lows. (TradingView)

The chart shows dogecoin's (DOGE) daily price swings in candlestick format.

DOGE's price has bounced from the December low marked by the horizontal line.

The recovery needs to extend beyond the brief high of 15 cents on Jan. 6. Such a move would confirm a double bottom bullish breakout, indicating a bearish-to-bullish trend change.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $210.83 (-1.24%), +0.94% at $212.81 in pre-market

Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $69.96 (-1.33%), +3.17% at $72.18

Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $33.18 (+6.07%), +1.42% at $33.65

Bullish (BLSH): closed at $34.80 (-2.41%), +2.30% at $35.60

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.52 (+5.41%), +0.19% at $10.54

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.55 (+8.13%), +0.40% at $17.62

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $19.94 (+4.67%), +1.76% at $20.29

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.27 (+6.67%), +0.23% at $13.30

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $50.90 (+9.27%), -1.16% at $50.31

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $15.48 (+5.16%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $161.58 (+0.62%), +0.27% at $162.02

Strive (ASST): closed at $0.82 (+4.20%), -0.99% at $0.81

SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.99 (+6.50%), -0.20% at $9.97

Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.98 (+4.76%)

Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.32 (+2.33%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: -$147.4 million

Cumulative net flows: $56.34 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: -$63.6 million

Cumulative net flows: $12.38 billion

Total ETH holdings ~6.06 million

Source: Farside Investors

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