Running for the Exits: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The Czech National Bank became the world’s first central bank to buy bitcoin BTC $ 95,646.31, and a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) debuted in the US with an impressive trading volume.

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Yet what’s dominating headlines is bitcoin’s fall below $100,000 and the crypto market crash. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index has slumped 8.35% in the last 24 hours amid a broader drawdown that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop 1.65% tech-heavy Nasdaq lose 2.29% on Thursday.

Spot bitcoin ETFs also saw significant outflows. Investors pulled $869 million on Thursday, the second-largest daily exit on record. Over the past three weeks, spot bitcoin ETFs have lost $2.64 billion.

“We’re seeing steady interest in owning long-dated BTC vol around 80–120k, paired with selective short-term call selling (classic covered call activity),” crypto market maker Wintermute said. “Positioning leans neutral-to-cautious but shows no appetite to chase big downside.”

When it comes to ether options, Wintermute noted it’s seeing “consistent downside hedging into year-end, and active call selling across the curve, especially 3.5-4.0k.” Traders are positioning for downside.

The sell-off sparked a wave of liquidations, leading to more than $1.11 billion over the last 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. It comes as expectations of a U.S. interest-rate cut in December start dropping and concerns about an AI bubble mount.

The CME’s FedWatch tool shows the odds of a rate cut this month are close to a toss-up, while traders on Polymarket are still giving a 25 bps cut a slight edge, weighing a 52% chance of that happening. That’s down from 90% late last month.

Adding to the uncertainty, the White House said that recent key economic indicators, including October inflation, may not be released at all due to delays from the now-ended government shutdown.

“Now that the AI excitement is cooling and more questions are raised around spending, concerns around the K-shaped economy in the US are raised again,” Wintermute wrote.

Despite the milestones, the crypto sector is reaching, with spot ETFs from major issuers being traded and a central bank buying BTC, macro headwinds are keeping prices under pressure. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Crypto Nothing scheduled.

Macro Nothing scheduled.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Nov. 14: American Bitcoin (ABTC), pre-market. Nov. 14: Hive Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Governance votes & calls Convex Finance is voting to discontinue OFT token support for assets like frxETH on Polygon zkEVM and Blast, citing their deprecation or inactivity. Voting ends Nov. 14.

Unlocks Nov. 15: WalletConnect Token (WCT) to unlock 65.21% of its circulating supply worth $13.76 million. Nov. 15: CONX $ 17.65 Nov. 15: STRK $ 0.1394 Nov. 16: ARB $ 0.2360

Token Launches Nov. 14: Pieverse (Pieverse) to be listed on Binance, MEXC, BingX, XT and others.



Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Market Movements

BTC is down 1.87% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $104,909.52 (24hrs: -6.05%)

ETH is down 0.56% at $3,160.31 (24hrs: -9.6%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 1.17%at 3,096.79 (24hrs: -8.14%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.88%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0082% (8.944% annualized) on Binance

DXY is up 0.2% at 99.36

Gold futures are down 0.56% at $4,170.90

Silver futures are down 1.08% at $52.60

Nikkei 225 closed down 1.77% at 50,376.53

Hang Seng closed down 1.85% at 26,572.46

FTSE is down 1.35% at 9,675.09

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.01% at 5,684.85

DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.65% at 47,457.22

S&P 500 closed down 1.66% at 6,737.49

Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.29% at 22,870.36

S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.86% at 30,253.64

S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.32% at 3,103.60

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.8 bps at 4.129%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.23% at 6,744.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.48% at 24,974.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.15% at 47,476.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 59.77% (-0.67%)

Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0327 (0.84%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1089 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $40.31

Total fees: 2.96 BTC / $300,582

CME Futures Open Interest: 140,275 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 22.8 oz.

BTC vs gold market cap: 11.46%

Technical Analysis

BVIV's daily chart. (TradingView)

The chart shows daily moves in Volmex's 30-day bitcoin implied volatility index, BVIV.

The index has formed a pennant pattern, marking a triangular consolidation following the recent bullish trendline breakout.

Such patterns usually indicate a temporary pause that refreshes higher. Therefore, the pennant could soon resolve bullishly, paving the way for more gains in the index.

In other words, BTC price volatility expectations could continue to rise in the near-term.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $283.14 (-6.86%), -1.82% at $277.99 in pre-market

Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $82.34 (-4.59%), -0.62% at $81.83

Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.24 (-12.89%), -3.34% at $26.33

Bullish (BLSH): closed at $41.02 (-9.85%), -2% at $40.20

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.78 (-11.31%), -2.11% at $12.51

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.88 (-10.22%), -2.59% at $13.52

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.16 (-7.79%), -2.97% at $14.71

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.98 (-10.13%), -3.09% at $11.61

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $41.97 (-12.07%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $18.15 (-8.84%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $208.54 (-7.15%), -1.89% at $204.59

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $23 (-10.61%)

SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.99 (-5.01%), -2.37% at $10.73

Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.22 (-4.73%), -0.62% at $3.20

Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.9 (-5.47%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: -$866.7 million

Cumulative net flows: $59.33 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.34 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: -$259.6 million

Cumulative net flows: $13.33 billion

Total ETH holdings ~6.48 million

Source: Farside Investors

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