Risk-On Positions Undermined by 1M U.S. Jobs Revision: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (all times ET unless stated otherwise)

Just 10 days after the U.S. Department of Commerce started posting economic data on a selection of blockchains, the reliability of its data is being questioned by some observers.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy .

On Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed a startling figure: The economy created nearly 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March. The record revision calls into question earlier optimism about the strength of the labor market, casting doubt on all risk-on positions traders took in the past year or so.

Markets interpreted the downward revisions as another sign the Fed will introduce aggressive easing in the coming months. One popular Polymarket trader is betting that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points on Sept. 17.

Bitcoin BTC $ 113,549.43 is trading above $112,000, having reached lows of around $110,800 during North American trading hours yesterday. European stocks are higher with the S&P 500 futures pointing to a positive open later Wednesday.

Still, caution may be warranted for two reasons: The U.S. producer price and consumer price indices due in the next 24 hours are likely to show that inflation remains elevated and well above the Fed's 2% target. Stagflation concerns may grip the market, weakening the case for aggressive Fed easing, if these data sets blow past expectations.

The second reason is that the liquidity tightening is underway.

"Liquidity is tightening as the Treasury General Account rises and the reverse repo facility drains, pushing reserve balances lower," Mott Capital Management said. "With SOFR climbing, spreads widening, and credit stress showing up, the market may soon face renewed pressure on risk assets."

This is probably the reason why put options tied to bitcoin and ether continue to trade pricier than calls on Deribit, reflecting downside concerns.

In other news, crypto staking platform Kiln said it is exiting its Ethereum validators due to an exploit incident that affected SwissBorg.

Real-world asset protocols continue to grow, with a total value locked of now over $15 billion.

Lastly, a single entity earned $200 million from the MYX airdrop. Talk about windfall gain. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto Sept. 10, 9:15 a.m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in Washington. Sept. 11: REX Shares and Osprey Funds’ Dogecoin ETF shares to start trading on Cboe BZX Exchange under ticker DOJE.

Macro Sept. 10, 8 a.m.: Brazil August CPI. Inflation rate YoY Est. 5.1%, MoM Est. -0.15%. Sept. 10, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August PPI YoY Est. 3.3%, MoM Est. 0.3%. Core YoY Est. 3.5%, MoM Est. 0.3%.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) None scheduled.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

Governance votes & calls Goldfinch DAO is voting on the Goldfinch Foundation’s annual budget of $400,000 and 200,000 GFI. Voting ends Sept. 10. Compound DAO is voting on extending its COMP yield strategy. Voting ends Sept. 11. Hyperliquid to vote on who issues its USDH stablecoin. Voting takes place Sept. 14.

Unlocks Sept. 11: Aptos APT $ 4.4547

Token Launches Sept. 10: Linea (LINEA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, MEXC, KuCoin, Bitget OKX, CoinW, and others. Sept. 10: Kong KONG $ 0.0₆2158



Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

The crypto market has entered "altcoin season" despite sentiment remaining in bearish territory.

CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index has ticked up to 59/100, topping August's high of 57 as capital continues to rotate into the more speculative tokens.

Market intelligence platform Santiment noted that while prices are moving to the upside, sentiment is becoming more negative.

"Traders have changed their tunes, swinging more and more negative with expectations of bitcoin falling back below $100K, Ethereum back below $3.5K, and altcoins going through a retrace period," Santiment wrote on X.

Altcoins remain unperturbed with mantle (MNT) and pyth (PYTH) leading the way, gaining 15% and 10%, respectively, over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin BTC $ 113,549.43

Previous altcoin seasons have occurred when bitcoin consolidates as traders rotated capital to speculative assets without the risk of missing out on a major BTC move.

Bitcoin has been trading between $107,000 and $113,000 for more than two weeks after failing to break beyond $124,000.

Derivatives Positioning

By Omkar Godbole

BTC's futures open interest (OI) has remained steady over the past 24 hours as traders sit on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow's U.S. CPI release.

OI in ETH, SOL and HYPE has increased by over 2%, while XRP, SUI, ADA, and ENA have seen capital outflows.

Annualized funding rates for top coins except TRX and XLM are hovering at or above 10%, indicating a bullish bias but nothing out of ordinary. In other words, there are no signs of excess leverage buildup or overheating.

On the CME, notional open interest in BTC options has climbed to a record $5.6 billion, while activity in futures remains subdued.

On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts out to December expiry continue to trade at a premium to calls, indicating lingering downside concerns.

Block flows at OTC desk Paradigm featured a long position in the ether $4,000 put expiring on Sept. 26.

Market Movements

BTC is up 0.68% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $112,296.28 (24hrs: -0.35%)

ETH is up 0.47% at $4,325.02 (24hrs: -0.54%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 0.87% at 4,128.56 (24hrs: -0.59%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.87%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0103% (11.2785% annualized) on KuCoin

DXY is unchanged at 97.76

Gold futures are up 0.1% at $3,686.00

Silver futures are up 0.65% at $41.61

Nikkei 225 closed up 0.87% at 43,837.67

Hang Seng closed up 1.01% at 26,200.26

FTSE is up 0.25% at 9,265.34

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.25% at 5,382.08

DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.43% at 45,711.34

S&P 500 closed up 0.27% at 6,512.61

Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.37% at 21,879.49

S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.12% at 29,063.01

S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,800.26

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.3 bps at 4.087%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.14% at 6,530.75

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,886.50

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.26% at 45,640.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 58.19% (unchanged)

Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03848 (-0.38%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average) : 992 EH/s

Hashprice (spot) : $52.47

Total fees: 4.61 BTC / $517,036

CME Futures Open Interest: 134,650 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 30.7 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 8.68%

Technical Analysis

Doge printed a Doji candle Tuesday. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Dogecoin printed a Doji candle Tuesday, which indicates lack of willingness among bulls and bears to lead the price action.

The emergence of Doji has neutralized the bullish outlook stemming from the descending trendline breakout confirmed Sunday.

Tuesday's high of 25 cents is the new level to beat for the bulls.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN) : closed on Tuesday at $318.78 (+5.49%) , +0.56% at $320.57 in pre-market

Circle (CRCL) : closed at $117.99 (+4.92%) , +1.07% at $119.25

Galaxy Digital (GLXY) : closed at $26.58 (+9.74%) , +1.35% at $26.94

Bullish (BLSH) : closed at $53.81 (+7.36%) , unchanged in pre-market

MARA Holdings (MARA) : closed at $15.93 (+4.8%) , +0.75% at $16.05

Riot Platforms (RIOT) : closed at $15.21 (+13.17%) , +0.85% at $15.34

Core Scientific (CORZ) : closed at $14.53 (+4.31%) , +2.96% at $14.96

CleanSpark (CLSK) : closed at $9.67 (+5.45%) , +1.03% at $9.77

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) : closed at $33.13 (+11.59%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD) : closed at $26.75 (+1.71%) , unchanged in pre-market

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR) : closed at $328.53 (-0.42%) , +0.69% at $330.80

Semler Scientific (SMLR) : closed at $28.07 (-0.78%)

SharpLink Gaming (SBET) : closed at $16.69 (+6.51%) , +0.48% at $16.77

Upexi (UPXI) : closed at $5.5 (-2.83%) , +3.45% at $5.69

Mei Pharma (MEIP) : closed at $2.78 (-7.33%) , +4.32% at $2.90

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $23 million

Cumulative net flows: $54.85 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: $44.2 million

Cumulative net flows: $12.69 billion

Total ETH holdings ~6.36 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

The combined market cap of top two stablecoins continues to set new highs. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The combined market cap of the two largest stablecoins, Tether's USDT and Circle Internet's USDC, continues to set new highs, indicating persistent demand for dollar-linked assets despite Fed rate cut bets.

The Fed is expected to cut rates at its Sept. 17 meeting.

While You Were Sleeping