Looking to U.S. Jobs, Inflation Data for Guidance: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC $ 89,612.77 rebounded to almost $90,000, reversing Sunday's drop to trade largely unchanged over 24 hours. The same can be said for the broader market, with both the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indexes little changed. The only notable winner is the RAIN token, which has added over 6%.

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BTC's recovery is consistent with the 0.5% gains in futures tied to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, and with the continued weak tone in the dollar.

"Price action is compressed. Volatility is present, but conviction is not. This remains a market waiting for a catalyst," Timothy Misir, the head of research at BRN, said in an email.

Catalysts are plenty this week: U.S. retail sales, jobs data, inflation reports and multiple Fed speakers will take center stage, influencing expectations of how quickly the central bank might ease interest rates next year. Plus, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.

"Any upside surprise risks reinforcing the 'hawkish cut' narrative, while softer data could reopen the door for risk assets into year-end. For crypto, macro sensitivity remains elevated until clarity emerges," Misir noted.

Market sentiment has turned fearful, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, flipping the pain trade higher. The market's cleaner too, nearly $300 million in leveraged bets were wiped out over 24 hours, mostly longs, according to Coinglass. These factors back price gains.

Bears, however, also have a reasons to feel emboldened. While the MOVE index, which represents the 30-day implied volatility in Treasury notes, suggests renewed bullishness or a pickup in bond-market turbulence, market swoons usually accompany heightened volatility in Treasury notes.

Coincidentally, Nasdaq's technicals are pointing to an end of the recovery rally from November, and BTC's options market continues to show a bias for puts across multiple timeframes.

In other news, BTC's hash rate, or the computer power dedicated to the blockchain, reportedly fell 8% to 1,200 EH/s. Nano Labs' founder, Kong Jianping, linked the drop to the closure of mining farms in Xinjiang, China.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released a wallet and custody investor guide, outlining risks across different custody models and best practices. It warned investors to assess whether custodians rehypothecate assets or commingle assets.

In traditional markets, gold extended gains while some analysts warned that the downside in the Dollar Index looks limited. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Crypto Dec. 15, 5 a.m.: Aster ASTER $ 0.8997 AMA on Discord. Dec. 15, 10 a.m.: Conflux (CFX) AMA on “AI Agents in Web3” on X Spaces.

Macro Dec. 15, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Nov. Inflation Rate. Headline YoY Est. 2.3%, MoM Est. 0.1%. Core YoY (Prev. 2.9%), MoM (Prev. 0.6%). Dec. 15, 9:30 a.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Stephen I. Miran speech ("The Inflation Outlook"). Watch live.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Nothing scheduled.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Nothing scheduled.

Market Movements

BTC is down 0.46% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $89,821.87 (24hrs: -0.07%)

ETH is up 2.47% at $3,160.25 (24hrs: +1.65%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 0.3% at 2,853.05 (24hrs: +0.24%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.81%

BTC funding rate is at -0.0017% (-1.8407% annualized) on Binance

DXY is little changed at 98.32

Gold futures are up 1.16% at $4,378.70

Silver futures are up 2.78% at $63.73

Nikkei 225 closed down 1.31% at 50,168.11

Hang Seng closed down 1.34% at 25,628.88

FTSE is up 0.83% at 9,729.49

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.6% at 5,754.91

DJIA closed on Friday down 0.50% at 48,458.05

S&P 500 closed down 1.07% at 6,827.41

Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.69% at 23,195.17

S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.42% at 31,527.39

S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3,173.29

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2.6 bps at 4.17%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% at 6,865.00

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.5% at 25,338.50

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.47% at 49,090.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 59.13% (+0.13%)

Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03516 (1.21%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,064 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $38.35

Total fees: 1.93 BTC / $172,697

CME Futures Open Interest: 124,275 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 20.6 oz.

BTC vs gold market cap: 6.01%

Technical Analysis

XLM's daily chart. (TradingView)

The chart shows daily swings in stellar (XLM) token's price in candlestick format.

Prices have dived below a sideways consolidation pattern, signaling a broader downtrend represented by the descending trendline.

The breakdown has shifted focus to the April low of 20 cents.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $267.46 (-0.58%), +0.41% at $268.56 in pre-market

Circle (CRCL): closed at $83.47 (-5.76%), +0.97% at $84.28

Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.75 (-10.42%), +1.23% at $27.08

Bullish (BLSH): closed at $43.54 (-4.05%), -0.18% at $43.46

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.52 (-2.7%), +0.52% at $11.58

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.30 (-2.86%), +0.65% at $15.40

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.53 (-5%), +0.42% at $16.60

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $14.03 (-5.33%), unchanged in pre-market

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $42.74 (-7.77%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $15.23 (-8.2%), +1.31% at $15.43

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $176.45 (-3.74%), +0.32% at $177.02

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $17.97 (-6.5%)

SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.51 (-8.85%), +1.71% at $10.69

Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.26 (-6.22%)

Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.71 (-5.52%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $49.1 million

Cumulative net flows: $57.89 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: -$19.4 million

Cumulative net flows: $13.11 billion

Total ETH holdings ~6.32 million

Source: Farside Investors

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