Inflows of New Liquidity Have Dried Up: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC $ 102,980.72 continues to chop around $103,000, struggling to extend Wednesday's recovery from under $100,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index is up 2% in 24 hours alongside 18% gains in ZEC, ICP and QNT.

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The crypto market currently resembles a game of musical chairs: Liquidity is shifting from one token to another, without any new influx, in what Wintermute calls a "self-funded mode."

New inflows have been slowing for months across all three channels through which capital enters the ecosystem: stablecoins, ETFs and digital asset treasuries (DATs), Wintermute said.

U.S.-listed spot ETFs, for example, registered cumulative outflows of over $1.5 billion in less than two weeks and demand from digital asset treasury firms has dropped sharply from third-quarter peaks.

Interestingly, the absence of fiat inflows comes even as the M2 money supply in major countries continues to rise. This may be because the M2 increase, driven by fiscal spending, is aimed at stimulating a global capital expenditure cycle focused on technology, particularly AI, infrastructure, and boosting domestic demand.

The key question is when will liquidity start flowing in again? Perhaps soon, as the Fed is "easing into a bubble," as Ray Dalio described in his X post, calling it inflationary. Elevated inflation could sustain demand for gold and gold-like assets such as bitcoin. Altcoins involved in AI or those linked to beneficiaries of fiscal stimulus may also perform well, while others may struggle.

For now, traders should watch bitcoin’s interaction with its 50-week simple moving average, a crucial bull market support since early 2023. A strong rebound here could signal new record highs.

In other news, crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) urged the U.S. Treasury to ensure its upcoming rules for the GENUIS stablecoin act do not exceed statutory requirements. Decentralized exchange Lighter, which recently experienced a bot glitch that pushed HYPE’s price near $100, adopted Chainlink as its oracle partner for real-world asset derivatives.

In traditional markets, the dollar index rally is nearing resistance at the August high of 100.25. A breakout could pressure crypto further. Goldman Sachs said the U.S. Supreme Court appears increasingly likely to rule against the Trump administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, although any reductions would likely apply to smaller trading partners rather than major ones like China. Stay alert!

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Crypto Nothing scheduled.

Macro Nov. 6, 7 a.m.: Bank of England interest-rate decision. Est. 4%. Nov. 6, 2 p.m.: Mexico central bank interest-rate decision. Est. 7.25%. Nov. 6, 2:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller is giving a speech on "Central Banking and the Future of Payments." Watch live

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Nov. 6: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.64. Nov. 6: Iren (IREN), post-market, $0.15.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Governance votes & calls Nov. 6: OlympusDAO (OHM) to host a community call.

Unlocks No major unlocks.

Token Launches Nov. 6: Folks Finance (FOLKS) to be listed on Binance, Kraken, MEXC, BingX, and others. Nov. 6: UnifAI (UAI) to be listed on Binance, Bitrue, and others. Nov. 6: TIA $ 0.7987



Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

Market Movements

BTC is down 0.77% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $102,873.60 (24hrs: +0.73%)

ETH is down 1.58% at $2,607.45 (24hrs: +1.89%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 1.33% at 3,261.54 (24hrs: +1.80%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 3.06%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0071% (7.7854% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.24% at 99.96

Gold futures are up 0.59% at $4,016.60

Silver futures are up 0.91% at $48.46

Nikkei 225 closed up 1.34% at 50,883.68

Hang Seng closed up 2.12% at 26,485.90

FTSE is down 0.28% at 9,749.73

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.03% at 5,670.66

DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.48% at 47,311.00

S&P 500 closed up 0.37% at 6,796.29

Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.65% at 23,499.80

S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.09% at 30,103.48

S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.32% at 3,054.60

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.9 bps at 4.138%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,830.00

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,759.50

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 47,432.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 60.57% (unchanged)

Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03291 (-0.17%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,111 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $41.97

Total fees: 4.18 BTC / $429,396

CME Futures Open Interest: 135,525 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 24.5 oz.

BTC vs gold market cap: 6.91%

Technical Analysis

BTC's daily chart. (TradingView)

BTC has penetrated the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April to October rally.

The next support is seen at $94,237, which is the 61.8% retracement.

On the higher side, $116,400 is the leb

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $319.30 (+3.9%), -0.23% at $318.58 in pre-market

Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $113.03 (+1.6%), +0.38% at $113.46

Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.44 (+0.87%), +1.72% at $31.98

Bullish (BLSH): closed at $48.32 (+5.62%), +0.37% at $48.50

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.13 (+3.07%), -0.41% at $17.06

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $18.97 (-1.58%), -0.32% at $18.91

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $21.8 (+0.28%), +0.32% at $21.87

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.58 (+2.22%), unchanged in pre-market

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $62.18 (+6.4%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.24 (+0.48%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $255 (+3.24%), -1.13% at $252.11

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.74 (+20%), -0.84% at $28.50

SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $12.13 (+3.85%), -1.15% at $11.99

Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.67 (+5%), +1.77% at $3.74

Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.85 (+5.11%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: -$137 million

Cumulative net flows: $60.26 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.34 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: -$118.5 million

Cumulative net flows: $13.91 billion

Total ETH holdings ~6.61 million

Source: Farside Investors

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