Crypto Daybook Americas: The Overture to 2025 Strikes a Familiar Chord

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The overture to 2025 has a familiar tune. It's not just the numbers: Bitcoin's 8% recovery from late December, but the news flow is equally recognizable.

Perhaps the most important note comes from JPMorgan, which says the market forces that drove bitcoin and gold to records last year are still around.

"The debasement trade is here to stay, with both gold and Bitcoin becoming increasingly important components of investors' portfolios," the investment bank wrote.

The debasement trade is a strategy where investors buy assets that protect against declines in fiat currencies and government bonds due to inflation and policy shifts.

Last year's debasement play drove bitcoin above $100,000 — a figure it's approaching again — and gold over $2,600. The rallies were fueled by increased geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation concerns, debt debasement in advanced economies, fears of fiat currency devaluation in emerging markets and a shift away from the U.S. dollar. Coupled with President-elect Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance, this led to a record $78 billion in net inflows into the digital assets market, according to JPMorgan.

Any discordant tone comes from elevated bond yields and a strong dollar driven by economic optimism and declining Fed rate-cut bets, which could limit upside potential in the short term. This Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will provide a critical test for the hawkish Fed narrative, with expectations for 154,000 job additions in December.

The shenanigans surrounding BTC-holder MicroStrategy (MSTR) deserve attention, particularly the social-media buzz about brokers reducing their exposure to the company. This reduction comes alongside significant increases in margin requirements, raising concerns about potential volatility.

Meanwhile, crypto economist Ben Lilly suggests that ether’s price has been suppressed by the growing number of coins locked up in the DeFi protocol Ethena, which shorts ETH futures as part of a delta-neutral hedge strategy to maintain the $1 peg of its stablecoin, USDe. ETH has jumped 10% in the first six days of the year but remains well below its record high.

"This suggests a shift in the market toward delta-neutral exposure on ETH instead of seeking upside by holding it as collateral. Thus, the ETH price is likely to be muted on the upside because of Ethena," Lilly said on X.

Ethena has announced plans to launch iUSDe, a version designed for institutional investors seeking exposure to yield-bearing USDe without direct token interaction. Meanwhile, the leading on-chain perp DEX exchange, Hyperliquid, has listed SOLV, the native token of the Bitcoin staking protocol Solv Protocol, and whispers are circulating about whales looking to buy up the HYPE token. Stay alert.

What to Watch

Token Events

Governance votes & calls Cartesi to hold first governance call of 2025 at 8 a.m. The injective community passed a proposal in favor of decreasing the INJ supply as part of the INJ 3.0 upgrade.





Conferences:

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa



Parody token SPX6900 (SPX) jumped another 17% in the past 24 hours to reach a $1.5 billion market capitalization, keeping a rally from last week going even as the broader market remains fairly steady.

The token started as a satire on the S&P 500 equity index and has since captured a dedicated community that hopes to one day flip the capitalization of the entire U.S. stock market, which was valued at just over $44 trillion as of Monday.

A manifesto on the SPX6900 site speaks to a generation facing economic challenges, positioning the token as a "reset" for the stock market.

The community's rallying cry, "stop trading and start believing in something," has fostered a strong, belief-driven following. This slogan encourages long-term holding over short-term trading, fostering a community of "diamond-handed" believers. This culture prioritizes faith in the project's potential over immediate financial gains.

Derivatives Positioning

Most large-cap tokens have seen price gains in the past 24 hours.

The increases are accompanied by muted cumulative volume delta and limited growth in futures open interest, indicating a lack of strong buying pressure and raising concerns about the sustainability of these gains.

The BTC options market shows renewed buying in calls at strikes $100,000 and $120,000, anticipating a rally to new lifetime highs.

Dealers are net short gamma at the $100,000 strike, which means a breakout above that level could see them trade in the direction of the market to maintain their net exposure neutral. That could add to the upward momentum.

Similar negative gamma is seen in ETH between $3,650 and $3,850 strikes.

Traders have sold upside optionality in SOL.

Market Movements:

BTC is up 0.78 % from 4 p.m. ET Friday to $99,034.53 (24hrs: +1.41%)

ETH is up 0.97% at $3,647.09 (24hrs: +3.22%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 0.29% to 3,659.91 (24hrs: +1.19%)

Ether staking yield is down 11 bps to 3.05%

BTC funding rate is at 0.01% (10.95% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.57% at 108.33

Gold is unchanged at $2,641.26/oz

Silver is up 1.33% to $30.01/oz

Nikkei 225 closed -1.47% at 39,307.05

Hang Seng closed -0.36% at 19,688.29

FTSE is up 0.12% at 8,233.81

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.89% at 4,914.95

DJIA closed on Friday +0.8% to 42,732.13

S&P 500 closed +1.26% at 5,942.47

Nasdaq closed +1.77% at 19,621.68

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.7% at 25,073.54

S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.44% at 2,153.90

U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 1 bp at 4.61%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.51% to 6,020.00

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.85% to 21,699.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.14% at 43,081

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 57.25%

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.0367

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 814 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $56.5

Total Fees: 5.9 BTC / $579k

CME Futures Open Interest: 170,345 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 37.6 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 10.70%

Basket Performance

Technical Analysis

BTC's daily price chart (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Watch out for a potential head-and-shoulders topping pattern in bitcoin.

A breakdown below the horizontal support line would confirm the pattern, opening doors for a deeper price slide.

Recent price action has shown sellers are looking to reassert themselves.

Crypto Equities

MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $339.66 (+13.22%), up 2.74% at $348.94 in pre-market.

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $270.65 (+5.23%), up 2.73% at $278.05 in pre-market.

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$29.44 (+13.36%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.64 (+14.12%), up 2.24% at $20.08 in pre-market.

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.34 (+17.97%), up 2.51% at $12.65 in pre-market.

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.38 (+6.22%), up 1.69% at $15.64 in pre-market.

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.80 (+14.29%), up 2.87% at $11.11 in pre-market.

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.73 (+10.91%).

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $59.04 (+8.13%).

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: $908.1 million

Cumulative net flows: $35.91 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.124 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $58.9 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.64 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.611 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The spread between yields on the U.S. 10-year note and the three-month bill. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The spread between yields on the U.S. 10-year note and the three-month bill has turned positive in a so-called normalization or de-inversion of the yield curve.

Previous de-inversions have often signaled sharp economic downturns.

This time may be different because the movement is led by a faster rise in the 10-year yield, representing economic optimism.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether