Crypto Daybook Americas: BTC Price Rallies Into July as Derivatives Market Shrugs

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin

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has edged up 0.9% in the last 24 hours, recovering from a dip after its record monthly close at the end of June. July may carry the trend forward, if historical data is any sign of what's ahead.

BTC has risen in all but three Julys in the past 10 years, with an average increase of around 7%, according to CoinGlass data. Further evidence comes from market maker Wintermute, which plotted the average daily bitcoin funding rate — a proxy for investor sentiment — against spot returns since 2022. It found July is the only month that pairs relatively strong gains with relatively subdued sentiment.

In the past three years, bitcoin returned more than 0.3% a day on average while funding hugged zero during the month, according to a note the market maker shared with CoinDesk.

Of course, past performance is not indicative of the future, and the dollar's current weakness may be the test, given that it generally moves in the opposite direction to bitcoin. The DXY index, a measure of the U.S. currency against its peers, is at a three-year low and is nearing a death cross on technical charts, an indicator that has consistently marked bottoms for it since 2008. Wither bitcoin?

Thursday’s U.S. payrolls report will probably to provide some clues, and help signal when the Federal Reserve is likely to trim interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell has maintained the central bank will “wait and learn” how tariffs shape inflation, keeping policy in limbo.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners looms, while the House is set to vote on his so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” which could add up to $3.3 trillion to the already inflated U.S. national debt bill after a razor-thin Senate passage.

On top of that, corporate treasuries are piling in. Publicly listed firms bought roughly 131,000 BTC in the second quarter, an 18% jump that beat the 8% increase in U.S. spot-ETF holdings. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto July 2: Shares of the REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF (SSK) are expected to begin trading on the Cboe BZX Exchange, making it the first U.S.-listed ETF to combine SOL price exposure with on-chain staking rewards. July 15: Lynq is expected to launch its real-time, interest-bearing digital asset settlement network for institutions. Built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous yield accrual and improved capital efficiency.

Macro Day 3 of 3: ECB Forum on Central Banking (Sintra, Portugal) July 2, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Canada data on manufacturing and services activity. Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.1 July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment data. Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 139K Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2% Government Payrolls Prev. -1K Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -6K vs. Prev. -8K July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended June 28. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 240K vs. Prev. 236K Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1960K vs. Prev. 1974K July 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity. Composite PMI Prev. 49.1 Services PMI Prev. 49.6 July 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity. Composite PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 53 Services PMI Est. 53.1 vs. Prev. 53.7 July 3, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services sector data. Services PMI Est. 50.5 vs. Prev. 49.9

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) None in the near future.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

Derivatives Positioning

BTC and ETH futures open interest remain flat at around $25 billion and $11 billion, respectively, showing lack of interest from traders as prices trade and back and forth in a narrow range.

XRP's open interest has ticked up to a four-week high of $1.4 billion alongside flat-to-negative funding rates, which indicates bias for bearish bets.

SOL, BCH, SUI, XLM and SHIB markets also showed negative funding rates, while XMR exhibited bullish bias with near 20% rates.

On Deribit, BTC and ETH options risk reversals continued to show a lack of clear directional bias in short- and near-term tenors, with mild bullishness emerging from September-October expiries.

Market Movements

BTC is up 1.62% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $107,684.07 (24hrs: +1.09%)

ETH is up 1.33% at $2,449.08 (24hrs: -0.36%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 1.36% at 3,007.13 (24hrs: -0.1%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 3%

BTC funding rate is at 0.006% (6.5328% annualized) on Binance

DXY is up 0.13% at 96.94

Gold futures are unchanged at $3,350.50

Silver futures are up 0.15% at $36.45

Nikkei 225 closed down 0.56% at 39,762.48

Hang Seng closed up 0.62% at 24,221.41

FTSE is up 0.26% at 8,808.17

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.68% at 5,318.56

DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.91% at 44,494.94

S&P 500 closed down 0.11% at 6,198.01

Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.82% at 20,202.89

S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.62% at 26,857.11

S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.24% at 2,701.08

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 3.6 bps at 4.285%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,256.25

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 22,710.50

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.15% at 44,873.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 65.65 (+0.17%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02277 (0.04%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average) : 878 EH/s

Hashprice (spot) : $58.44

Total Fees: 4.19 BTC / $446,034

CME Futures Open Interest: 146,945

BTC priced in gold: 32.3 oz.

BTC vs gold market cap: 9.10%

Technical Analysis

BCH's price. (CoinDesk/TradingView)

Bitcoin cash BCH $ 502.86

Still, it remains locked in a broad range identified by trendlines connecting April 2024 and December 2024 highs and August 2024 and April 2025 lows.

A potential breakout would confirm a long-term bullish shift in momentum.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR) : closed on Tuesday at $373.30 (-7.65%) , +2.98% at $384.44 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN) : closed at $335.33 (-4.33%) , +2.54% at $343.85

Circle (CRCL) : closed at $192.53 (+6.2%) , +0.97% at $194.40

Galaxy Digital (GLXY) : closed at $21.31 (-2.69%) , +3.05% at $21.96

MARA Holdings (MARA) : closed at $15.70 (+0.13%) , +2.42% at $16.08

Riot Platforms (RIOT) : closed at $11.27 (-0.27%) , +3.19% at $11.63

Core Scientific (CORZ) : closed at $17.25 (+1.05%) , +0.12% at $17.27

CleanSpark (CLSK) : closed at $11.08 (+0.45%) , +2.89% at $11.40

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) : closed at $23.09 (+1.54%)

Semler Scientific (SMLR) : closed at $35.42 (-8.57%) , +3.08% at $36.51

Exodus Movement (EXOD) : closed at $29 (+0.59%) , -2.76% at $28.20

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: -$342.2 million

Cumulative net flows: $48.61 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: $40.7 million

Cumulative net flows: $4.27 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 4.11 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Number of ETH on Base. (L2Beat)

The number of ETH deposited on Coinbase's layer-2 blockchain, Base, through crypto bridges has crashed to 831,980 from 1.81 million a month ago.

The reason for the exodus is not known.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether