Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Resilient as Trump's 'Liberation Day' Unsettles Markets

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

President Trump's so-called Liberation Day has arrived, and markets are nervously awaiting developments on U.S. tariffs. Even within the administration, the mood appears far from optimistic.

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Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly in the crosshairs, with suggestions he may become the scapegoat for favoring overly aggressive tariffs if the U.S. were to head into a recession, according to The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.

A recession looks likely according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which is projecting a first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP. That is a dramatic downward revision from earlier estimates: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month ago and -1.8% just two weeks ago.

While Trump has yet to disclose which country the tariffs will target, an announcement is scheduled for after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.

Bitcoin (BTC), meanwhile, remains unfazed, trading little changed on the day and holding above $85,000. U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday, although futures are pointing slightly negative heading into Wednesday.

Currently, bitcoin is 25% below its Jan. 20 all-time high of $109,000. This places it in the middle of the performance range of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks. Here's how they compare to their respective all-time highs: Apple is down 17%, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32% and Tesla 50%.

The cryptocurrency's resilience stands out when compared to past cycles. In 2022, BTC fell 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, more than twice as much as the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)'s 34%. This year, bitcoin has dropped 30% versus 16% for QQQ — a relative drawdown of 1.87 times. This relative performance suggests bitcoin has become more resilient over time, even as volatility remains a defining trait.

Still, a lot hinges on the tariff announcement and how markets react. Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto: April 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing for marking up various measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link. April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) will have its mainnet launch. April 5: The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto. April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about how the U.S. securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.

Macro April 2, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases February industrial production data. Industrial Production MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0% Industrial Production YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.4% April 2, 4:00 p.m.: Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs will get announced. April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link. April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26 become effective. April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link. April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) No earnings scheduled.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

President Donald Trump's TRUMP memecoin is set to unlock 40 million tokens — or 20% of the circulating supply — on April 17, according to Solana Floor.

Token unlocks often lead to short-term price drops due to increased supply, as seen with other cryptocurrencies such as Aptos (APT), which fell 26% in 30 days after a June 2024 unlock.

A similar pattern could emerge for TRUMP, which is currently priced just above $10.

Memecoins can see higher selling pressure than utility projects because they rely heavily on sentiment, in this case to Trump’s political brand.

However, if the president's political influence continues to drive hype — potentially amplified by developments like Trump Media ETFs — the token might see buying activity after the unlock.

That means investors looking to bet on TRUMP are likely to keep an eye on his public comments and statements about the memecoin specifically around the unlock date.

Derivatives Positioning

Market stability failed to inspire bullish positioning, leaving perpetual funding rates for major tokens, including BTC and ETH, barely positive near annualized rates of 1% to 3%.

Most major coins are exhibiting negative cumulative volume deltas, a sign of net selling pressure, casting a doubt on how long the market stability can last.

In Deribit's options market, BTC volatility smiles have shifted sharply toward lower strike put options, reaching levels not seen since the U.S. regional banking crisis of March 2023, according to data tracked by Block Scholes.

Ether options are also exhibiting put skews.

Market Movements

BTC is down 0.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $85,063.12 (24hrs: +1.19%)

ETH is down 1.75% at $1,879.84 (24hrs: +0.48%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 0.56% at 2,559.88 (24hrs: -0.07%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 3.1%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0027% (2.9685% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.13% at 104.12

Gold is up 1.4% at $3,162.70/oz

Silver is up 1.79% at $34.77/oz

Nikkei 225 closed +0.28% at 35,725.87

Hang Seng closed unchanged at 23,202.53

FTSE is down 0.57% at 8,585.55

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.47% at 5,295.55

DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 41,989.96

S&P 500 closed +0.38% at 5,633.07

Nasdaq closed +0.87% at 17,449.89

S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.46% at 25,033.30

S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.44% at 2,440.93

U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.16%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 5,657.50

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.37% at 19,531.50

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.24% at 42,138.00

Bitcoin Stats:

BTC Dominance: 62.68 (0.21%)

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02211 (-1.16%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 819 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $47.62

Total Fees: 4.35 BTC / $366,246

CME Futures Open Interest: 135,350 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 27.0 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.66%

Technical Analysis

Crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The chart shows the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding market leaders bitcoin and ether.

The value is holding on to a bullish trendline sloping upward from August and November lows.

A strong bounce from the trendline would signal a resumption of the broader rally.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $306.02 (+6.16%), down 1.31% at $302in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $174.52 (1.33%), down 0.88% at $172.99

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.33 (+7.65%)

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.84 (+2.96%), down 1.01% at $11.72

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.54 (+5.9%), down 1.33% at $7.44

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8 (+10.5%), down 0.63% at $7.95

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.56 (+12.5%), down 1.46% at $7.45

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.67 (+7.05%), down 2.51% at $12.80

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.52 (+0.88%)

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.63 (-0.24%), up 2.98% at $46.99

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

Daily net flow: -$157.8 million

Cumulative net flows: $36.11 billion

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: -$3.6 million

Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

BofA private client net flows over the past week and month. (BofA, The Market Ear)

The chart shows technology stocks have fallen out of favor over the past four weeks.

That helps explain the weakness in the crypto market.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether