Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Tops $110K as Nonfarm Payrolls Report Looms

Crypto Daybook Americas will not be published on Friday owing to the July 4 holiday. It will return on Monday. Wishing our U.S. readers a happy Independence Day.



By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

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Bitcoin

hit $110,000 for the first time since June 11 and is now within striking distance of its $112,000 all-time high, which was recorded on May 22.

Bitcoin dominance has slipped from its June 22 high of just over 66% and now stands a bit above 65%. This figure reflects bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to the entire crypto market. Currently, bitcoin boasts a market cap of $2.2 trillion.

Today's major economic event is the release of the U.S. jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 110,000 last month, the smallest gain in four months and a slowdown from May’s increase of 139,000. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.3%, up from 4.2%. If this figure materializes, it would be the highest unemployment rate since October 2021. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has held within a tight range between 4% and 4.2%.

The report comes a day early because of the July 4 holiday weekend, which is likely to see reduced trading volumes. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will close at 1 p.m. today and bond markets at 2 p.m. Markets will remain closed on Friday, July 4.

Ahead of the release, markets were pricing in a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% during its meeting scheduled for July 30.

“On-chain flows remain stable, suggesting that major players are awaiting further signals from this week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Initial Jobless Claims data," HTX Research wrote. "Structurally, the market is navigating between two potential scenarios."

If labor data weakens, a confirmed September rate cut could ignite a renewed rally in BTC, HTX said. On the other hand, if NFP surprises to the upside, a break below $104,000 could trigger a technical correction.

"Overall, bitcoin now finds itself at a crucial inflection point, shaped by renewed capital inflows, rising speculative interest, and diverging macroeconomic expectations. The coming days could prove pivotal for confirming the next major trend in the market". Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto July 15: Lynq is expected to launch its real-time, interest-bearing digital asset settlement network for institutions. Built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous yield accrual and improved capital efficiency.

Macro July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment data. Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 139K Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2% Government Payrolls Prev. -1K Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -5K vs. Prev. -8K July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended June 28. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 240K vs. Prev. 236K Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1960K vs. Prev. 1974K July 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity. Composite PMI Prev. 49.1 Services PMI Prev. 49.6 July 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity. Composite PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 53 Services PMI Est. 53.1 vs. Prev. 53.7 July 3, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services sector data. Services PMI Est. 50.5 vs. Prev. 49.9 July 4, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases May producer price inflation data. PPI MoM Prev. -0.37% PPI YoY Prev. 7.27% July 4, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases June consumer confidence data. Consumer Confidence Prev. 46.7 July 4, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Canada data on manufacturing and services activity. Composite PMI Prev. 45.5 Services PMI Prev. 45.6 July 9, 12:01 a.m. — Deadline for the European Union and other U.S. trading partners to finalize deals to avoid reinstatement of reciprocal tariffs on imports. July 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hybrid hearing titled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets” with CEOs of Blockchain Association, Chainalysis, Paradigm, and Ripple testifying. Livestream link.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) None in the near future.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

AI-focused NEAR token is trading at $2.36 having risen by 16.5% since July 1.

The rally accelerated Wednesday following an announcement from fund manager Bitwise, which is rolling out a NEAR exchange-traded product (ETP) for institutional investors in Europe.

Daily trading volume doubled over the past 24 hours, hitting $213 million as traders attempt to ride the coattails of NEAR's recent positive shift in sentiment.

“The NEAR Staking ETP on Xetra opens a new bridge to NEAR for institutions by providing a regulated, exchange-traded way to earn staking rewards," Near Protocol CEO Illia Polosukhin told CoinDesk.

NEAR's move also reflects broader altcoin market strength, with the CoinDesk DeFi Select Index rising by 7.74% in the past 24 hours and CoinDesk's memecoin index is up by 13.2% in the same period.

Memecoins BONK and WIF are leading the pack, up 21% and 15% respectively on Thursday.





Derivatives Positioning

DOGE, LTC, XMR have seen the biggest increases in open interest in perpetuals listed on offshore exchanges. BTC, XRP perpetual futures open interest has jumped over 5% in 24 hours, validating the spot price rise.

TRX and BCH continue to see a bias for shorts, as evidenced by the negative funding rates. Meanwhile, funding rates for XMR have surged to an annualized 40%, signifying potential overcrowding of long positions.

Block option flows on Deribit featured bull put spreads in BTC — a net credit strategy that profits from price rise or consolidation.

In ETH's case, a $2,800 call expiring on July 25 was lifted while someone sold a call at $3,400.

Market Movements

BTC is up 0.72% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $109,970.87 (24hrs: +1.75%)

ETH is up 0.33% at $2,599.77 (24hrs: +5.63%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 1.51% at 3,149.61 (24hrs: +4.23%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.98%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0049% (5.3217% annualized) on Binance

DXY is up 0.05% at 96.83

Gold futures are unchanged at $3,356.90

Silver futures are up 0.81% at $37.03

Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 39,785.90

Hang Seng closed down 0.63% at 24,069.94

FTSE is up 0.34% at 8,804.35

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.26% at 5,305.14

DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.02% at 44,484.42

Wednesday down 0.02% at 44,484.42 S&P 500 closed up 0.47% at 6,227.42

Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.94% at 20,393.13

S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 26,869.66

S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.99% at 2,727.94

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2.8 bps at 4.265%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,273.75

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 22,838.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 44,798.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 65.21% (-0.09%)

Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02362 (unchanged)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average) : 872 EH/s

Hashprice (spot) : $59.65

Total Fees: 4.48 BTC / $483,647

CME Futures Open Interest: 151,540 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 32.7 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 9.27%

Technical Analysis

BTC perpetual futures open interest. (Velo)

The chart shows daily changes in the cumulative open interest in BTC perpetuals listed on major exchanges.

Open interest in BTC terms has broken out of a descending channel, indicating renewed demand for leveraged bets.

The breakout comes as the spot price rises above $110K, suggesting a bias for bullish plays.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR) : closed on Wednesday at $402.28 (+7.76%) , -4.83% at $382.85 in pre-market

Coinbase Global (COIN) : closed at $354.45 (+5.7%) , -3.8% at $340.99

Circle (CRCL) : closed at $177.97 (-7.56%) , +5.91% at $188.49

Galaxy Digital (GLXY) : closed at $22.22 (+4.27%) , -2.07% at $21.76

MARA Holdings (MARA) : closed at $17.80 (+13.38%) , -10.28% at $15.97

Riot Platforms (RIOT) : closed at $12.20 (+8.25%) , -5.33% at 11.55

Core Scientific (CORZ) : closed at $17.56 (+1.8%) , -2.11% at $17.19

CleanSpark (CLSK) : closed at $12.48 (+12.64%) , -8.65% at $11.40

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) : closed at $25.15 (+8.92%) , -7.24% at $23.33

Semler Scientific (SMLR) : closed at $39.54 (+11.63%) , -8.19% at $36.30

Exodus Movement (EXOD) : closed at $29.44 (+1.52%) , -0.65% at $29.25

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $407.8 million

Cumulative net flows: $49.02 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: -$1.9 million

Cumulative net flows: $4.27 billion

Total ETH holdings ~4.13 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

Polymarket-listed betting contract "June jobs report prints negative?"

The Polymarket-listed betting contract "June jobs report prints negative?" indicates that traders perceive an 11% chance that Thursday's nonfarm payrolls report will reveal job losses in June.

In other words, the bar of negative expectations has been set low and the market may react violently if the data does show job losses.

Weaker labor market data will likely strengthen the chance of Fed rate cuts, breeding bullish bitcoin volatility.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether