Bonds Hint at Rebound: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Risk-off sentiment deepened in Asian trading as the price of bitcoin BTC $ 90.470,56 briefly fell below $90,000 for the first time in seven months before stabilizing near $91,000, a 4.5% drop over 24 hours.

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While major alternative cryptocurrencies like XRP $ 2,1626, BNB BNB $ 911,26 and SOL SOL $ 137,13 also dropped, they outperformed the largest cryptocurrency. Most of the top 100 coins are in the red, except for a handful of exceptions like ASTER, HYPE, KYPE and ICP.

Some experts attribute BTC's double-digit monthly slide mainly to fading expectations of a December Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.

"The probability of a cut fell from roughly 70% to 42% in just about a week, amplified by the absence of other macro data points," market maker Wintermute said. "[Fed Chair Jerome] Powell walking back the almost certain December cut forced investors to examine individual FOMC member preferences, revealing the cut was far from consensus. The response was immediate: U.S. risk assets softened and crypto, the most sentiment-sensitive risk asset, got hit hardest."

But there's a silver lining. Data from ING shows that open interest in bullish U.S. Treasury bond options has increased recently, a sign traders are betting on higher prices and lower yields.

This stance suggests they are anticipating weaker U.S. economic data to revive hopes for faster Fed rate cuts. ING pointed out that with only 15 basis points priced in for a December cut, the room for front-end rates spillover into the dollar is significant. In other words, there is scope for renewed dollar weakness.

For bitcoin bulls battered this month, this outlook could signal a turning point. Declining yields and a softer dollar have historically offered fertile ground for a crypto rebound. The key question remains: When will this dovish repricing in Treasuries spill over to risk assets, helping bitcoin and the wider crypto market regain poise?

For now, the U.S. dollar index remains firm, poised to extend Monday's bounce from 99.00 and potentially retest the Aug. 1 swing high of 100.25, a level that acted as resistance earlier this month. Its approach and interaction with this key level will be crucial to watch. A clear breakout above 100.25 could increase pressure on risk assets. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Market Movements

BTC is down 0.48% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $91,437.01 (24hrs: -4.32%)

ETH is up 1.85% at $3,061.45 (24hrs: -4.18%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 1.5% at 2,963.20 (24hrs: -3.93%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 8 bps at 2.91%

BTC funding rate is at 0.0084% (9.1761% annualized) on Binance

DXY is unchanged at 99.60

Gold futures are down 0.86% at $4,039.30

Silver futures are down 0.96% at $50.22

Nikkei 225 closed down 3.22% at 48,702.98

Hang Seng closed down 1.72% at 25,930.03

FTSE is down 1.05% at 9,573.79

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.33% at 5,565.93

DJIA closed on Monday down 1.18% at 46,590.24

S&P 500 closed down 0.92% at 6,672.41

Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.84% at 22,708.07

S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.83% at 30,076.21

S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.78% at 3,087.59

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2.3 bps at 4.11%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 6,672.25

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.32% at 24,798.75

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.32% at 46,514.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 58.96% (-0.8%)

Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03351 (1.96%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,103 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $37.94

Total fees: 4.48 BTC / $420,601

CME Futures Open Interest: 136,705 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 22.7 oz.

BTC vs gold market cap: 6.13%

Technical Analysis

VIX's daily chart. (TradingView)

The VIX index, which tracks 30-day implied volatility in the S&P 500, is breaking out of a prolonged range, suggesting it might be time to be a volatility bull on Wall Street.

Rising volatility in equities could spill over into crypto, further amplifying the already elevated volatility environment.

Still, it remains unclear whether the breakout will sustain or fizzle out, as it did last month.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $263.95 (-7.06%), -0.37% at $262.97 in pre-market

Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $76.59 (-6.47%), +0.25% at $76.78

Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.04 (-4.94%), -1.36% at $24.70

Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.75 (-4.5%), -0.14% at $36.70

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.51 (-4%), -0.52% at $11.45

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.88 (-0.5%), -0.5% at $13.81

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.79 (-0.94%)

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.61 (-3.19%), -0.66% at $10.54

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.92 (+0.94%), unchanged in pre-market

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $17.3 (-4.68%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $195.42 (-2.17%), -0.61% at $194.22

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $20.02 (-8.25%)

SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.29 (-5.51%), -0.29% at $10.26

Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.60 (-13.21%), -0.19% at $2.59

Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.90 (-5.94%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: -$254.6 million

Cumulative net flows: $58.58 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: -$182.7 million

Cumulative net flows: $12.97 billion

Total ETH holdings ~6.34 million

Source: Farside Investors

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