Bitcoin value investors move in as BTC price drops, 'capitulation' searches rise: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC $ 70,411.45 has retreated by nearly 2.5% in the past 24 hours after failing to hold onto gains made during an end-of-week bounce that pushed it back up to $71,000.

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The pullback followed a turbulent few days in which the cryptocurrency plunged to as low as $60,000 before rebounding. BTC is still down more than 11% in the past seven days.

Even so, it's outperforming the wider market, which saw the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index drop 13.5% over 24 hours and 13.7% in a week.

The drop saw institutions move. Speaking to CNBC, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said late last week that the firm saw significant inflows as prices dropped.

“I think long-time holders are feeling unsure, and I think the new investor set — institutions — are feeling they’re getting a new crack at the apple and seeing prices they thought they’d forever missed,” Horsley said.

Spot bitcoin ETFs on Friday reversed a three-day streak of outflows, bringing in a net $371 million, SoSoValue data shows. Still, retail sentiment remained fragile. Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, noted on social media that U.S. investors are buying back in, based on the Coinbase Premium Index turning positive for the first time since mid-January.

Online search interest for terms such as “crypto capitulation” spiked during the selloff and stayed elevated, according to crypto analytics firm Santiment, offering an opportunity for value investors to step in.

Meanwhile, capital flowed into traditional safe havens. Gold and silver extended their recovery after a selloff late last month, with gold once again topping $5,000 as investors consider a weaker U.S. dollar and major purchasers continued accumulating. These include Tether, whose gold stash has topped $23 billion, and China’s central bank.

Stock market futures are down ahead of the open, after a Japan equities rallied over the ruling party’s landslide win in a snap election. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had campaigned on low interest rates and significant fiscal spending.

The yield on Japanese government bonds kept rising, further unwinding the yen carry trade and affecting risk assets including cryptocurrencies. The unwind could bring nearly $5 trillion of overseas investments back into the country. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Crypto Feb. 9: Maple Finance has identified and repaired a compromise on its web application, which remains offline.

Macro Feb. 9, 11 a.m.: U.S. consumer inflation expectations for January (Prev. 3.4%)

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Nothing scheduled.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Governance votes & calls No major governance votes.

Unlocks No major unlocks.

Token Launches Feb. 9: Pendle to launch sPENDLE buybacks with first yield distributions starting Feb. 13, and rewards time-weighted from Jan. 29. Feb. 9: ZKsync to launch Season 1 of the ZKnomics Staking Pilot Program via Tally



Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Market Movements

BTC is down 2.90% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $69,045.23 (24hrs: -2.44%)

ETH is down 4.07% at $2,034.28 (24hrs: -4.40%)

CoinDesk 20 is down 3.09% at 1,973.38 (24hrs: -3.46%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 25 bps at 2.74%

BTC funding rate is at -0.037% (-4.0362% annualized) on Binance

DXY is down 0.33% at 97.31

Gold futures are up 1.67% at $5,033.80

Silver futures are up 5.62% at $81.05

Nikkei 225 closed up 3.89% at 56,363.94

Hang Seng closed up 1.76% at 27,027.16

FTSE 100 is up 0.31% at 10,402.44

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.39% at 6,021.78

DJIA closed on Friday up 2.47% at 50,115.67

S&P 500 closed up 1.97% at 6,932.30

Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.18% at 23,031.21

S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.49% at 32,471.00

S&P 40 Latin America closed down 2.89% at 3,653.05

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.23%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,949.25

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.20% at 25,113.25

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 50,246.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 59.33% (-0.05%)

Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02944 (-0.92%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $34.55

Total fees: 2.23 BTC / $157,182

CME Futures Open Interest: 116,125 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 13.8 oz.

BTC vs gold market cap: 4.62%

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is testing the 200-week exponential moving average (~$68,339), a critical support level to prevent an extended structural drawdown.

The weekly RSI is firmly oversold at 28.18, a level that has historically preceded short-term rebounds.

While this positioning suggests there's a high probability of a bounce, a clear reversal of the downtrend requires a sustained breakout above $74,000.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $165.12 (+13.00%), –1.24% at $163.07 in pre-market

Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $19.76 (+17.34%), –0.30% at $19.70

MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA): closed at $8.24 (+22.44%), –2.67% at $8.02

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT): closed at $14.45 (+19.82%), –1.18% at $14.28

Core Scientific, Inc. (CORZ): closed at $16.81 (+13.47%), –0.30% at $16.76

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.08 (+21.96%), –0.89% at $9.99

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.56 (+12.10%)

CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.43 (+14.76%)

Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $57.04 (+13.56%), –1.05% at $56.44

Bullish (BLSH): closed at $27.45 (+10.24%), unchanged at $27.45

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $134.93 (+26.11%), –3.47% at $130.25

Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $11.91 (+20.84%), –3.40% at $11.51

Sharplink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.03 (+15.82%), –0.71% at $6.98

Upexi, Inc. (UPXI): closed at $1.14 (+4.59%), +0.88% at $1.15

Lite Strategy, Inc. (LITS): closed at $1.06 (+11.58%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $330.7 million

Cumulative net flows: $54.63 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: -$21.3 million

Cumulative net flows: $11.83 billion

Total ETH holdings ~5.83 million

Source: Farside Investors

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