Bitcoin Slips on White Paper Anniversary, Weekly ETF Outflows Hit $600M: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Cryptocurrency prices ghosted downward over the last 24 hours, haunted by a sell-off in equities after major U.S. tech firms Meta and Microsoft raised their AI investment projections, prompting overspending concerns.

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Bitcoin BTC $ 109,629.07 was little changed, dropping 0.3% to around $110,000 on the 17th anniversary of the publication of its white paper, while ether fell 1.3% to about $3,840. The not-so-spooky move comes as traders assess the shifting outlook for interest rates and inflation on both sides of the Atlantic.

The European Central Bank appears to be pausing its rate-cutting cycle, while the Federal Reserve signaled an interest-rate cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion.” On Polymarket, the perceived odds of three U.S. rate cuts this year slid from 86% to 64%.

Crypto exchange-traded fund flows turned negative, with spot bitcoin ETFs seeing $600 million in outflows so far this week and ETH ETFs registering $184.3 million outflows, according to SoSoValue data.

The ETFs are “showing signs of investor caution,” while the Fear & Greed Index slides deeper into “fear” territory, Bitget COO Vugar Usi Zade said in an emailed statement.

“This transition certainly reflects growing macro anxiety, fueled by persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path,” Zade wrote. “However, despite the pullback, on-chain activity remains resilient, and the structural case for crypto exposure is still intact.”

Zade pointed to long-term factors like the bitcoin halving due in 2028 and evolving global regulation as potential catalysts for long-term rallies, even though “timing is always uncertain.”

At Coinbase, third-quarter earnings beat expectations. The exchange posted $1.9 billion in revenue and confirmed its layer-2 network, Base, is now profitable, thanks to higher ETH prices and rising transaction volume, showing onchain adoption keeps growing.

Meanwhile, derivatives positioning shows bitcoin traders leaning on income strategies in the $105K–$115K range, according Wintermute Strategist Jasper De Maere.

“Over the next few weeks, markets will likely remain sensitive to macro data releases — including Fed commentary, inflation prints, and labor market signals — as well as any resolution to the ongoing government shutdown,” Bitget’s COO added. “These factors may drive sentiment swings, but they don’t alter the longer-term trajectory.”

Beware of ghouls, and stay alert!

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Crypto Oct. 31: The 17th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin white paper by pseudonymous Bitcoin inventor Satoshi Nakamoto.

Macro Oct. 31, 8 a.m.: Brazil Sept. Unemployment Rate Est. 5.5%. Oct. 31, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Aug. GDP MoM Est. 0%.

Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Nothing scheduled.

(Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Governance votes & calls No major governance votes or calls.

Unlocks Oct. 31: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.24% of its circulating supply worth $13.07 million. Oct. 31: OP $ 0.4006

Token Launches Oct. 31: NEO legacy mainnet shuts down.



Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

Day 2 of 3: CosmosVerse Balkans 2025 (Split, Croatia)

Day 1 of 3: Ethereum Mexico (Monterrey, Mexico)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

The altcoin market is heading into the weekend lower than a week ago, with ether ETH $ 3,837.05

Many tokens broke through key levels of support in the period, dragging the average down. The CoinDesk 80 Index, a measure of the smallest of the top 100 tokens, fell 3.8% while the CoinDesk 20 dropped 1.3%.

Doublezero (2z), plasma XPL $ 0.2937 ENA $ 0.4008

A few tokens bucked the trend, notably in-vogue privacy coin ZEC $ 376.32

The TRUMP memecoin also performed well after it emerged that the company behind the token plans to buy fundraising platform Republic. TRUMP rose 35% over the past seven days.

The altcoin market outlook now depends on whether ether can cling on to its current level of support at $3,700, an area that provided three bounces in October.

A break below that level would indicate weakness and a potential macro trend reversal, which is likely to be reflected across the entire altcoin market.

Derivatives Positioning

The bitcoin futures market is in a state of consolidation, with no clear trend emerging.

Open interest (OI) fell slightly to $26.16 billion, though it remains elevated.

Funding rates across most venues are little changed, indicating low general demand. There is, however, isolated bullish demand evident on specific platforms, like Deribit, where rates spiked to an annualized 8%.

The three-month annualized basis, meanwhile, remains subdued in the 4%-5% range, confirming that the basis trade is currently unappealing.

In options, there is a shift toward near-term neutral-to-bearish sentiment, despite maintaining a positive structural bias. The implied volatility (IV) term structure continues to show a near-term backwardation before moving into long-term contango.

While the one-week 25-delta skew remains positive at 8%, indicating a premium is still paid for short-term calls, this conviction is being challenged by the 24-hour put/call volume, which has flipped to a 56%-43% in favor of puts, suggesting near-term downside hedging or speculation is currently dominating trading activity.

Coinglass data shows $879 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 86-14 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($303 million), ETH ($193 million) and others ($79 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $111,000 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

Market Movements

BTC is up 2.19% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $109,880.54 (24hrs: -0.19%)

ETH is up 2.4% at $3,846.88 (24hrs: -1.21%)

CoinDesk 20 is up 2.36% at 3,604.98(24hrs: -1.68%)

Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 9 bps at 2.93%

BTC funding rate is at 0.004% (4.3526% annualized) on OKX

DXY is unchanged at 99.53

Gold futures are unchanged at $4,013.00

Silver futures are down 0.55% at $48.35

Nikkei 225 closed up 2.12% at 52,411.34

Hang Seng closed down 1.43% at 25,906.65

FTSE is down 0.43% at 9,718.26

Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.35% at 5,679.50

DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.23% at 47,522.12

S&P 500 closed down 0.99% at 6,822.34

Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.57% at 23,581.14

S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.11% at 30,178.98

S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.99% at 2,999.83

U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1 bps at 4.103%

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.66% at 6,900.75

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.18% at 26,188.75

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 47,683.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 59.98% (0.16%)

Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03500 (-0.37%)

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,138 EH/s

Hashprice (spot): $44.62

Total Fees: 2.86 BTC / $311,977

CME Futures Open Interest: 138,115 BTC

BTC priced in gold: 26.1 oz

BTC vs gold market cap: 7.36%

Technical Analysis

The ETH-BTC one-week rate looks likely to trade within a range.

There was a rejection at core weekly resistance back in August (around the time of the ether digital-asset treasury trade) and since then, the RSI has been declining (still not neutral).

It's likely that ETH-BTC will trade within the current weekly resistance and support meaning the risk-return on ether over bitcoin is unlikely to be attractive for the time being.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $328.51 (-5.77%), +4.83% at $344.38 in pre-market

Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $122.71 (-6.85%), +3.24% at $126.68

Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $34.13 (-6.31%), +2.84% at $35.10

Bullish (BLSH): closed at $49.95 (-4.98%), +1.18% at $50.54

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.76 (-5.93%), +2.65% at $18.23

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.09 (-4.87%), +4.74% at $22.09

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $20.74 (-0.14%), +3.38% at $21.44

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $17.69 (-6.35%), +2.77% at $18.18

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $56.71 (-3.31%), +2.50% at $58.13

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.73 (-3.81%), -1.56% at $23.36

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $254.57 (-7.55%), +6.77% at $271.80

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $24.61 (-5.29%), +1.89% at $25.08

SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $12.77 (-6.17%), +3.29% at $13.19

Upexi (UPXI): closed at $4.26 (-6.17%), +4.46% at $4.45

Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.95 (-6.25%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: -$488.4 million

Cumulative net flows: $61.34 billion

Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: -$184.2 million

Cumulative net flows: $14.48 billion

Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million

Source: Farside Investors

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