Bitcoin price forecast: Traders bet on bitcoin reclaiming $80,000
ReadSentiment in the bitcoin BTC $ 70,121.55 market has flipped bullish and traders are betting on a rally above $80,000, with traders positioning for a rally above $80,000.That's the message from decentralized exchange offering on-chain trading in crypto futures and options."Current options pricing shows roughly a 35% probability that BTC will reach above $80K by the end of June," Nick Forster, founder of on-chain options platform, Derive.xyz, told CoinDesk in an email. "Combined with the recovery in skew, this activity suggests many traders expect bitcoin to recover toward the $80K level between June and September."Options are derivative contracts that let you bet on BTC prices moving up or down, but with a inbuilt safety net that ensures you lose only a small upfront fee, not your whole account, if the bet fails. It's akin to buying a lottery ticket.A call lets you bet on price rallies, while a put lets you bet on price dumps. The latter is, therefore, seen as a protective hedge.Traders typically track options skew – that telltale pricing gap between calls and puts – to sniff out where the market's leaning. Calls pricier than puts indicates Bullish tilt, while put premium suggests otherwise.BTC's skew recoversBitcoin's seven day and 30-day skews have clawed back to -6% from the -25% panic lows in early February, when BTC cratered toward $25,000.The shift signals traders dialing back on protective puts – less crash hedging, more steady nerves."Despite earlier fears of a catastrophic crash of the crypto markets, derivatives markets suggest those concerns may have been overstated. BTC skew – a key measure of sentiment in options markets – has rebounded sharply from around -25% (normalized by at-the-money implied volatility) to roughly +10% today, signaling a significant shift away from aggressive downside hedging," Forster said.Skews based on leading centralized options exchange Deribit paint a similar picture.According to Forster, put shorting (writing) has surged across venues in recent days, a sign that traders are willing to take on downside risk in exchange for premium, which is consistent with expectations of stabilizing or rising prices.At press time, bitcoin changed hands near $70,000, up nearly 5% for the month, according to CoinDesk data.
