Bitcoin Price (BTC) Analysis: Another Leg Down in Store
ReadThe Oct. 10 crypto crash and lack of sizable bounce since continues to shake up sentiment among the bulls.Less than three weeks after saying a rise to $135,000 appeared imminent, Standard Chartered head of digital asset research Geoffrey Kendrick said a decline below $100,000 now appears "inevitable."STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy .In a note to clients on Wednesday, Kendrick said the recent high of $126,000 on Oct. 6 matched his near-term target but failed to hold as broader macro fears — particularly around U.S.-China trade tensions — triggered a market-wide selloff.“Since then, the 10 October US-China trade war fear driven selloff put paid to any further push higher,” Kendrick wrote. “The question now is how far does bitcoin need to fall before finding a base?”The good news, said Kendrick, is that the decline below $100,000 should be short-lived and is likely to mark the last-ever chance to buy BTC for six figure.Three key signals could mark the turning point, he said. The first is capital flow between gold and bitcoin. Kendrick noted that a sharp gold selloff this week coincided with an intraday bounce in bitcoin, possibly signaling a rotation from gold to crypto. “Further such evidence would be constructive for a bitcoin low being formed,” he added.Second, Kendrick is watching for signs that the Federal Reserve may end quantitative tightening. He points to several liquidity measures that have been tightening steadily. A Fed response could provide the macro backdrop for bitcoin to climb again.Finally, even though he doesn’t consider himself a technical analyst, Kendrick highlighted that bitcoin has consistently held above its 50-week moving average since early 2023, when it was trading around $25,000.In an earlier note on Oct. 3, Kendrick forecasted a new all-time high and set a year-end price target of $200,000. At the time, he cited U.S. government shutdown risks, bitcoin’s correlation to Treasury premiums and shifting ETF inflows as reasons for bullish momentum.While Bitcoin’s rally has stalled, Kendrick remains confident in a longer-term uptrend, urging investors to treat any drop below $100K as a potential entry point, not a sign of reversal.
