Bitcoin halving cycle history challenges $300,000–$500,000 moonshot forecasts

Crypto analysts are already looking at how high bitcoin BTC $ 64,116.31 could rally in the next cycle, expected to begin later this year, with ambitious targets ranging from $300,000 to $500,000.

But one important data point runs counter to those forecasts, suggesting that gains may be more measured than ever.

Unlike gold or stocks, bitcoin tends to move in clear four-year cycles centered on the mining reward halving, an event that halves the amount of new bitcoin produced per block every 4 years. Think of it as a programmed 50% reduction in the growth rate of the money supply.

The first halving happened in 2012, and the fifth one is scheduled for April 2028. In the past, prices have tended to bottom out and begin a new bull run roughly 18 months before the halving. That same bull run then peaks about 16-18 months after the halving, paving the way for a year-long bear market. That's the four-year cycle, and the peak of the next one is expected in 2029.

On the back of this, analysts and market experts have been calling for a massive bull run in the next few years.