Bitcoin Dips Under $63K as Market Enters Full Capitulation Phase
ReadBitcoin (BTC) sellers resumed their activity on Tuesday as the BTC price dropped 4% in 24 hours to an intraday low of $62,700.Analysts said that Bitcoin has entered an “excess loss-realization” phase, with the relative strength index (RSI) suggesting that a price bottom may be forming.Key takeaways:Bitcoin holders continued capitulating, pushing the BTC price below $63,000 on Tuesday.Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is nearing record lows, signaling a potential bottom.BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin holders continue capitulatingThe Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH-SOPR), which measures whether short-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss, dropped below 1 after US President Donald Trump announced a new 15% global tariff on Saturday.Related: Negative Bitcoin funding rate may signal short squeeze above $70KCurrently at 0.95, the metric shows “renewed short-term loss realization,” CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Research Japan said in a Quicktake post on Monday, adding:“The primary sellers are short-term holders reacting to uncertainty, rather than long-term investors distributing structurally.”Bitcoin: Short-term holder SOPR. Source: CryptoQuantWhen analyzing the volume of coins spent at a loss, the seven-day estimated moving average (EMA) of Bitcoin’s short-term holder net realized losses had cooled to $500 million per day, after rising as high as $1.24 billion per day on Feb. 6.Glassnode said:“While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate.”Bitcoin entity adjusted STH Net realized profit/loss. Source: GlassnodeThe 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio has “now fallen below 1, confirming a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime,” Glassnode said.Bitcoin: Realized profit/loss ratio. Source: GlassnodeBitcoin’s “most oversold” RSI could be a bottomBitcoin’s weekly relative strength index, which measures the speed and change of price movements, reached its “most oversold” score of 25.71 on Tuesday.These levels were last seen on July 22, a few months before the BTC price bottomed at $15,500 and then embarked on a bull run.BTC/USD weekly RSI. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIn all previous capitulation events when the RSI hit such extreme levels, short-term weakness was common, but a long-term recovery followed every time.Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is the “most oversold it has ever been, currently at 25.6, which is lower than the previous record low level back after 3AC/Luna crash,” crypto analyst Nic said in an X post on Tuesday, adding:“More downside is likely, but a bottom could be coming soon.”As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s fear and greed index is at historic lows while the number of bulls predicting new all-time highs is declining, which may be healthy market indicators for a macro bottom.
