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Francisco Rodrigues
8 months, 1 week ago

Bitcoin defies 'extreme fear,' hot jobs report to show signs of resilience: Crypto Markets Today

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Bitcoin BTC $ 68,088.98 is hovering near $67,800, up on the day, as crypto markets took in January’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report without an initial selloff.

The resilience is feeding a shift in sentiment, with the muted reaction possibly a signal of seller exhaustion and growing appetite for risk, despite a tough macro backdrop. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has gained 1.5% since midnight UTC with all but one token, BCH $ 514.88, advancing.

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The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January, nearly double the expected 70,000. That data sharply reduced the odds of an early interest rate-cut by the Federal Reserve, pushing expectations out to July.

Typically, lowering rate-cut odds would hurt risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The report, however, also showed job growth remained concentrated in health care-related sectors while others remained mostly little changed. That suggests the red-hot headline number is masking underlying cooling across the broader economy.

Bitcoin’s resilience suggests seller exhaustion even as sentiment remains low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is now at 5, its lowest level since the collapse of FTX in 2022.

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Bearish momentum is stabilizing, with open interest holding steady near $15.8 billion while perpetual funding rates have swung back to neutral or positive territory.

Sentiment is notably bullish on Bybit (+9.5%) and Binance (+3.4%), though Hyperliquid remains a bearish outlier at -4.5%.

The three-month basis remains stagnant at around 2%, suggesting that institutional conviction has yet to follow this retail-driven shift in funding.

In the bitcoin options market, defensive caution is intensifying, and the one-week 25-delta skew dropped to 19%, with puts now accounting for 54% of 24-hour volume.

The implied volatility (IV) term structure has shifted into short-term backwardation, reflecting a "panic premium" as traders pay for immediate downside protection.

Coinglass data shows $342 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 49-51 split between longs and shorts. BTC ($145 million), ETH ($84 million) and others ($18 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.

The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $68,800 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

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