Bitcoin (BTC) underperforms risk assets as record 9th day of ETF outflows signal waning demand: Crypto Daily
ReadBitcoin BTC $ 73,557.64 is stabilizing near $73,500, about 10% below its monthly high of $81,000. Data suggests the stall reflects a shortage of new buyers rather than a plethora of sellers.Risk assets broadly advanced after reports that U.S.-Iran negotiations could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil passageway, lifted sentiment."The expectations of a de-escalation in geopolitical tension and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz are reducing pressure on oil prices," analysts at Spanish lender Bankinter wrote in a market note.Against that supportive backdrop, bitcoin's weakness looks crypto-specific. Long-term holder supply has reached a record 15.8 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant, normally a bullish signal because it reflects coins held rather than traded. The firm argued the record may be hollow, reflecting slowing market turnover rather than conviction.Short-term holder supply has fallen about 2.2 million BTC since December. That includes roughly 900,000 BTC of Coinbase reserves that crossed the 155-day long-term-holder threshold by sitting still. The record is partly an artifact of inactivity, not fresh buying.Demand from spot bitcoin ETFs, a key driver of the past two years' rally, has cooled. Glassnode said inflows and spot demand remain too weak to sustain a move above cost-basis levels near $78,000. Net outflows from the ETFs reached a record nine-day streak on Thursday.Glassnode's realized profit/loss ratio sits at 1.56, below levels typical of stronger bull markets. On Polymarket, traders are assigning a strong probability bitcoin closes the month between $72,000 and $76,000. Stay alert!Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."What’s trendingToday’s signalThe ratio of altcoins (excluding the top 10) to bitcoin is currently just above its 50-week exponential moving average, a sign of strength relative to largest cryptocurrency.If the ratio ends the week above that level, the next resistance is a 20% increase relative to bitcoin, which would indicate sustained momentum across the broader altcoin universe.
