Bearish Bitcoin Analysts Predict BTC Price Can Drop to as Low as $50K

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally slid below a key support level at $84,000, which has held the price since mid-November 2025. Where will BTC price action head next?

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin dropped to a two-month low of $81,00 on Thursday, fueled by $1.6 billion in long liquidations

Some analysts forecast deeper declines in a prolonged bear market targeting $50,000-$58,000.

Bitcoin sentiment at record lows suggests “no upcycle”

Bitcoin extended its sell-off into the late New York trading session on Thursday, dropping to two-month lows of $81,000.

Support at the 2026 yearly open ($87,000), the 100-day moving averages and the $84,000-$86,000 demand zone failed to hold back sellers as crypto long liquidations passed $1.6 billion. Bitcoin wiped out more than $750 million in long positions on its tumble to $81,000.

Related: Bitfinex Bitcoin longs hit highest level since late 2023: Is a rally to $100K possible?

The risk-off mode reflects negative investor sentiment, which has dropped to “extreme fear” at 16 from yesterday’s reading of 26.

🚨 UPDATE: Crypto Fear and Greed Index drops to 16, signaling Extreme Fear as market sentiment worsens from yesterday's reading of 26. pic.twitter.com/TdN5RZo6OR — Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) January 30, 2026

“Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 16, signaling extreme fear, ” analysts at Crypto Town Hall said, adding

“Such levels historically reflect heavy risk-off sentiment and capitulation-driven conditions, often seen during sharp drawdowns or leverage flushes.”

Economist Timothy Peterson pointed out that consumer sentiment is approaching record lows, with the “5-year average at an all-time low.”

“People just don't buy Bitcoin or any other risk assets in an environment like this,” he said in a Friday post on X, adding:

“There's no upcycle until this reverses.”

Bitcoin’s consumer index. Source: Timothy Peterson

As Cointelegraph reported, “extreme fear” among investors is a reflection of “painful” conditions as those seen after the FTX crash, suggesting uncertainty and an unlikely turnaround in BTC price action in the near term.

Analysts say BTC may bottom at $50,000

As Bitcoin sentiment continues to decline, analysts expect bear market conditions to last longer and with lower price targets.

These include a retest of the 200-week moving averages, which have “often been great value areas for long-term buys,” according to trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades.

“The closer you can accumulate to these MAs, the better value you're getting,” the analyst said in a Friday post on X, adding:

“Over time the price can meet the moving averages even if it hovers sideways.”

Note that the 200-week SMA is currently at $57,974, coinciding with the downside target of a bear flag as shown in the chart below.

Such a move would represent a 30.5% decline from the current price and a 54% drawdown from the all-time high at $126,000.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fellow analyst Keith Alan highlighted similarities between BTC’s current price action in the weekly time frame to that seen in 2021-2022.

Bitcoin may see some “short-term rallies off of these near-range lows, but ultimately I think this bear market will last longer,” he said in his latest analysis on X.

Alan referred to the $74,500 range low, reached in April 2025, following US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

The analyst said the BTC/USD pair will “ultimately” drop below $74,000 in the absence of a “great“ catalyst and slide lower to the 2021 all-time high at $69,000.

“I’d like it a lot more if it takes until August to grind down that low,” Alan said, adding:

“If we sprint down there in February, the $50K range will look more interesting to me later in the year. ”

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Keith Alan

As Cointelegraph reported, many analysts expect 2026 to be a bear market year, and various forecasts predict the BTC price dropping to as low as $58,000.