A historically profitable bitcoin BTC $ 64,196.50 trading rule, built around the cryptocurrency's four-year halving cycle, is pointing toward another potential buying opportunity. But this time around, the pattern might not work as well as before, as spot bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors influence the market more than ever before.

The "500-Day Rule," popularized by Pantera Capital in 2023, suggested that investors would historically have profited by buying bitcoin roughly 500 days before the halving and selling about 500 days afterward. The trading strategy, which has historically generated returns of up to roughly 34 times an investor’s original stake, revolves around bitcoin’s previous boom-and-bust cycles, in which reductions in newly mined supply were followed by sharp price gains.

“Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterward,” Pantera Capital said in a 2023 report. “The post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days from the halving to the peak of that next bull cycle,” the article added. A bitcoin halving is programmed to occur every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years, cutting the number of new bitcoin awarded to miners per block by 50%.

A historically reliable bitcoin trading rule says a major buy signal is coming

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Crypto traders can put AI agents to work around the clock, but Animoca Brands chairman Yat Siu warns that users risk building their trading routine around a service they don’t control.

An agent can keep searching for new information and alert its user to developments they might otherwise miss, Siu tells Cointelegraph on the sidelines of Token2049 Singapore.

He uses conference planning as an example. A chatbot could supply a list of events when asked, but an autonomous agent would be on the lookout for new announcements and suggest attendance when a worthy event popped up.

But the technology still has teething problems. Siu’s own agent became so focused on crypto trading and investment management that it tried to interpret unrelated questions as being about crypto. The solution is to run multiple, specialized agents instead.

In a 2025 survey, 14.5% of respondents said they would let AI agents manage their entire crypto portfolio. Source: CoinGecko

“If you have one agent that handles your personal schedule, that handles your family schedule, that handles your trips … and on top of it gives you advice on your crypto, that’s not just going to be confusing for the agent. It’s going to be confusing for you,” Siu says.

The questions that set trading strategies apart

It’s also worth noting that running an agent won’t necessarily give you edge. A thousand people asking AI about the same trade could receive roughly the same answer, Siu says.

Regulators have taken note of the possibility that AI-driven traders can pile into the same positions. The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee warned in April 2025 that widespread use of similar models could lead investors to take related positions during periods of stress and amplify market shocks.

Related: Tech chief says EU can fend off rogue AI risk: Report

Responses diverge when users ask follow-up questions rooted in their own knowledge and concerns.

“Suddenly you query and you ask, and then your taste or your ideas or your thinking starts forming into it,” he says.

Over time, an agent can learn what its user prefers and begin trading along those lines. Those inputs help shape personalized crypto trading strategies.

AI agents receive wallets and trading tools

Crypto firms are already giving AI agents the tools to handle money alongside information.

Coinbase introduced Agentic Wallets in February, allowing agents to spend and trade crypto within limits set by users. Binance launched AI Agent Skills in March to give agents access to live market data and the ability to place and manage spot orders.

Related: AI potential to drive crypto demand remains ‘underappreciated’: BlackRock

Such tools allow users to delegate to agents more of the work required to follow markets 24/7 and potentially capture opportunities during the wee hours, without compromising sleep.

Siu sees human input continuing through the ideas and questions that guide an agent. AI can learn a user’s preferences over time, he says.

“By human input, I don’t mean human in the loop that approves it,” he says. “But the human is the one that ultimately is going to say, ‘Wait, you should look at this.’”

The privacy cost of an AI that knows you

Siu suggests treating an AI assistant like a third-party adviser. He says that before handing over a document, consider what information the agent needs to answer the question and what can be left out.

“What about your personal finances, what income you make, who your closest friends are?” Siu asks. “These are small little details that they don’t know about you, and now they have permission to know that about you.”

A trader might spend months teaching an agent which markets to follow and what information to digest before making a decision. An agent can remember the conversations to save the user from having to explain the same preferences over and over again.

Some 71% of US adults believe increased AI use will make their personal information less secure, according to a 2026 survey. Source: Pew Research Center

The danger is that the company running that service would still control access and an account suspension could interrupt everything you’re doing all at once.

Siu asks users to imagine an assistant that has learned about them over years, only to disappear one morning.

“At minimum, you have the right to download your data so that you can basically transfer it somewhere else so that another agent might be able to take over,” Siu says.

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Yat Siu Warns of Losing Access to Your AI Trading Agent

The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) approved what it said is the country’s first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) that invests directly in Bitcoin and is accessible to retail investors.

The financial regulator’s Tuesday announcement cited a “growing interest” in cryptocurrency investments, particularly Bitcoin (BTC).

While no fund issuer was identified by the regulator, it said multiple providers have submitted or announced Bitcoin ETF applications.

SIX Swiss Exchange announced in August 2025 that iShares would begin trading a Bitcoin exchange-traded product, fully backed by BTC held in cold storage by Coinbase Custody International Limited.

The approval clears a significant regulatory hurdle for the launch of Switzerland’s first retail-accessible ETF that invests directly in Bitcoin. The announcement did not specify a launch date.

In 2021, FINMA first authorized a fund for qualified investors that invests primarily in a basket of cryptocurrencies. The regulator said it granted an exemption from standard risk-diversification requirements, citing Bitcoin’s “long trading history and a particularly high trading volume” compared with other digital assets.

Still, the regulator emphasized that BTC investments carry market risks, such as the possibility of the invested capital losing a significant amount of its value, citing the high volatility of cryptocurrencies.

Switzerland is regarded as one of the most crypto-friendly European countries. In 2023, the Swiss city of Lugano adopted Bitcoin and Tether USDt (USDT) payments for all municipal fees, one of the world’s first city administrations to do so.

Related: Spar supermarket in Switzerland starts accepting Bitcoin payments

FINMA approves Switzerland’s first Bitcoin ETF for retail investors

A wallet linked to the Drift Protocol hack sent about $61 million in Ether (ETH) to Tornado Cash, a service that obscures transaction trails.

The wallet deposited 25,700 ETH to the cryptocurrency mixer over two hours on Tuesday after two months of inactivity, blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain said in an X post.

The exploiter’s addresses held about 81,454 Ether, worth roughly $194 million, according to Arkham. Crypto mixers pool funds from multiple addresses and obscure fund trails, making tracing harder.

Drift, a Solana-based decentralized exchange, reported about $295 million in losses from the April 1 hack. Drift said in June that a forensic investigation by cybersecurity firm Mandiant attributed the attack to UNC6862, a North Korean threat group.

Drift opened claims and redemptions for DFX recovery tokens on Oct. 1. The tokens give affected users a claim on a recovery pool, which held about $3.1 million at launch and receives exchange revenue and any recovered funds.

Drift exploit ranks as the third-largest crypto hack of 2026, according to DefiLlama. Other notable exploits include the $387 million Bitget hack and the $320 million Liquid Network exploit.

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Drift Exploiter Sends $61M in Ether to Tornado Cash

The U.S. dollar has lost at least 20% of its purchasing power in just five years, using the Fed’s own favorite inflation gauge. Sam Callahan explains why financial repression is already happening, from core PCE averaging 3.7% to the U.S. bond market’s steepest drawdown in history. He argues the policy is “working great. It’s just not working for the people.”

Chapters:

0:00 – Sam Callahan on Why Brazil Was Ready for a Bitcoin Treasury Company

2:05 – MSCI’s Exclusion: Why “Bitcoin Is Permanent”

4:18 – The Global Debt Binge and Why Debasement Is the Easy Way Out

5:55 – The Dollar Lost 20% of Its Purchasing Power in Five Years

7:03 – Financial Repression: Working for the Government, Not the People

8:17 – The BIS, Gold’s “Monetary Protest” and Central Bank Credibility

12:13 – When Will Central Banks Adopt Bitcoin?

14:10 – Gold, Bitcoin and the Dollar: The Three Pillars of Reserves

16:50 – Does Bitcoin Need Lower Rates? Why Fiscal Dominance Matters More

19:00 – Why All Roads Lead to Currency Debasement

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

Sam Callahan: Bitcoin Doesn’t Need Rate Cuts to Succeed

Real-world asset (RWA) platform tx has launched USTX, a dollar stablecoin for its wallet and planned marketplace for tokenized stocks.

Users will need USDC to mint USTX, which can also be redeemed for USDC, the company said in a Tuesday announcement shared with Cointelegraph. The platform accepts deposits from eight blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana and Base.

“It is not a USDC-backed wrapper or synthetic representation of USDC,” Ashley Ebersole, tx’s co-founder and chief legal officer, told Cointelegraph. USDC provides a way to mint USTX, which has its own 1:1 reserve structure through Brale, he said.

Fintech platform Brale issues USTX, manages its reserves and facilitates minting and redemption. According to tx, each token is backed by $1 in assets, including cash, bank deposits, government money market funds and short-term US Treasury bills.

Brale said in June that it was working with Visa to improve the speed and programmability of blockchain-based stablecoin settlement in environments where privacy, compliance, and operational control are essential.

Blockchain networks and trading platforms are launching their own dollar stablecoins through outside providers that handle issuance and reserve management. Native stablecoins provide a common dollar balance for buying assets, settling trades and posting collateral across a network.

Some stablecoin providers also share reserve earnings with clients. Eligible USTX users may also receive rewards through tx’s wallet programs.

The GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying holders interest or yield solely for holding, using or retaining a payment stablecoin.

“The overall rewards program was designed based on legal advice to ensure it falls within what’s permissible under the law,” Ebersole said when asked how the rewards comply with the restriction.

Related: Mastercard launches stablecoin risk screening for banks and payment providers

Tx Launches USTX Dollar Stablecoin for Tokenized Asset Trading

Gold or Bitcoin? Michael Howell says you need both. He calls Bitcoin “the most liquidity sensitive asset on the planet by far” and recommends a basket weighted by volatility, one where Bitcoin’s share grows as it becomes more institutional, possibly reaching 50/50 someday. He also flags $70K as key Bitcoin support and explains why Kevin Warsh’s Fed may keep liquidity from slumping.

Chapters:

0:00 – Michael Howell on a “Gangbusters” Economy and Rising Bond Yields

1:18 – How the AI Trade and the Real Economy Are Crowding Out Markets

3:23 – What a Flattening Yield Curve Says About the Liquidity Cycle

4:38 – The Debt Maturity Wall and Why Governments Will Print Big Time

5:42 – From Fed QE to Treasury QE: How the U.S. Is Monetizing Its Debt

7:45 – China’s Bond Market, the Yuan and Why Beijing Has to Print

12:33 – Why Governments Can’t Cut Spending: Monetization Is the Name of the Game

14:25 – Gold vs. Bitcoin: Building a Monetary Inflation Hedge Basket

15:32 – Bitcoin vs. Equities in a Debt Monetization World

19:29 – Kevin Warsh, Money Market Liquidity and Bitcoin’s Next Catalyst

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

Michael Howell: Bitcoin as the Apex Liquidity Asset

Some of the biggest banks in the United Kingdom are facing fresh scrutiny over cryptocurrency transfer restrictions after thousands of customers reported difficulties moving money to crypto platforms.

Crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto said 9,803 people submitted 10,092 complaints to UK banks over restrictions on transfers to crypto platforms during a 90-day period between May and August 2026. The complaints were submitted through the group’s online tool, according to a report reviewed by Cointelegraph on Tuesday.

Lloyds Banking Group, one of the UK’s largest banking groups, received the most complaints at 2,297, followed by Barclays with 1,569 and NatWest Group with 1,278, the report found.

The complaints raise questions about access to crypto services in the UK as the country prepares to introduce a new regulatory regime for digital assets in 2027.

UK banks differ on crypto transfer limits

Barclays and HSBC UK were listed as limiting crypto transfers to 2,500 British pounds ($3,300) per transaction and 10,000 pounds ($13,300) over 30 days.

Six banks, including Starling Bank, TSB and Chase UK, were listed as banning crypto-related transfers entirely.

Source: Stand With Crypto

Meanwhile, Lloyds Banking Group and Revolut were classified as having no published crypto transfer restrictions, despite receiving customer complaints.

Revolut’s official support page, however, states that transfers to “some cryptocurrency exchanges” are unsupported. A Stand With Crypto spokesperson said this appeared to be a technical issue rather than a stated policy.

Banking restrictions threaten UK crypto hub ambitions

Nick Jones, founder and CEO of Zumo, told Cointelegraph that banking restrictions are a common problem among UK crypto founders and could undermine the country’s ambitions to become a global crypto hub.

“This issue of restricted access to banking services needs to be urgently addressed in order for UK crypto firms to have a level playing field where they can grow and scale,” Jones said.

Related: Advocacy group pushes back on banks’ lawsuit against OCC over charters

Jones also warned that the UK’s incoming crypto regulatory regime may not resolve the problem. Although companies are preparing for mandatory Financial Conduct Authority approval in October 2027, access to a business bank account falls outside that framework, he said.

Without coordinated action, companies could obtain full authorization yet remain unable to open a UK business bank account, Jones added.

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UK Banks Face Complaints Over Restricted Crypto Transfers

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Former FTX COO Constance Wang said she was upset by the upcoming Netflix drama’s depiction of the collapse of the exchange and its portrayal of some of the top executives.

“The first 30 seconds were enough to upset me,” so “I stopped watching,” Wang told Cointelegraph during an episode of the Chain Reaction X spaces show published on Monday.

Wang said the Netflix trailer’s depiction of some former FTX executives made her “feel physically upset,” adding that the portrayal of Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison didn’t match her personal experience. She explained that former FTX co-founder and CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried, was also more “socially awkward” than his Netflix portrayal.

Wang served as COO of FTX, which grew into one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges before collapsing in November 2022 due to customer fund misappropriation, causing an $8.9 billion shortfall in customer funds. FTX’s sister company, quantitative trading firm Alameda Research, used FTX customer funds that Bankman-Fried transferred without consent to fund Alameda’s trading losses, now referred to as the Alameda gap.

Netflix released the trailer for the eight-episode series about FTX’s collapse in early October. The drama series, titled The Altruists, will premiere globally on Nov. 19, 2026, according to the streaming platform’s announcement.

Source: Cointelegraph

Wang bootstrapped AI-crypto venture following FTX collapse

Following FTX’s collapse, Wang in early 2025 founded Pacifica, a crypto trading platform initially launched as a Solana-based perpetual futures decentralized exchange.

She plans to add artificial intelligence capabilities to transform the platform into an intelligent trading infrastructure with strategic tools for investors.

“For Pacifica, we didn’t raise any funds, it’s completely bootstrapped,” said Wang, adding that some institutional investors faced compliance restrictions when speaking to former FTX personnel while the bankruptcy proceedings were still ongoing.

Related: Sam Bankman-Fried’s lawyer lays out ex-FTX CEO’s Supreme Court case

Bankman-Fried and Ellison were indicted in December 2022 following the exchange’s collapse and bankruptcy.

Ellison accepted a plea deal to testify against Bankman-Fried and was released from prison in January, after serving 440 days of a two-year sentence.

Bankman-Fried was convicted on seven felony counts and was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March 2024, with a scheduled release in 2044. In September, Bankman-Fried’s lawyers reportedly asked the Supreme Court to overturn his fraud conviction. He has also applied for a pardon from US President Donald Trump.

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South Korean data centre company Elice’s (0158S0) stock market debut added to nervousness surrounding artificial intelligence investments on Tuesday, as investors further questioned whether spending on infrastructure will deliver sufficient returns.

The Seoul-based neocloud provider closed at 60,500 won ($45.57), down over 30% from its 90,500 won offer price. The IPO raised $151 million at a valuation of roughly $755 million, according to Bloomberg. The slump followed a retail offering oversubscribed more than 400 times.

Pressure has extended into U.S. pre-market trading, where CoreWeave (CRWV) fell another 3%. The neocloud sector faces scrutiny over borrowing costs, high debt levels and the profitability of capital-intensive expansion plans. Technology shares, bitcoin and gold were also lower on Tuesday morning.

Elice’s weak debut accompanied another sell-off in South Korean equities. The KOSPI dropped almost 4% to finish at 5,552, with Samsung Electronics falling around 3% and SK Hynix losing roughly 4%.

Meanwhile, Brent crude topped $111 a barrel, reaching its highest level since May, while WTI traded around $100. Brent’s roughly $11 premium reflected persistent concerns about Middle Eastern supply disruptions and shipping risks.

A historically reliable bitcoin trading rule says a major buy signal is coming

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